Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/31 Game 1
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+51.5pt). The game was decided in South 4: Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,700, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +40.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 26% | 23% | 25% | -7.5 | +5.5 | +3.7 | -1.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 1,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 20% | 29% | 27% | 25% | -1.6 | -4.3 | -0.8 | +6.8 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 24% | 25% | 30% | +7.4 | +1.6 | -4.7 | -4.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 4,000 | 24% | 28% | 22% | 26% | +16.1 | -6.9 | -2.2 | -6.9 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,600 from Aiko Hinata | 38% | 21% | 21% | 21% | +1.1 | +0.4 | -10.1 | +8.6 |
| South 2 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 2,700 | 38% | 21% | 14% | 26% | -1.0 | -10.0 | -5.7 | +16.7 |
| South 3 | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 37% | 13% | 11% | 39% | -4.1 | +42.2 | -27.1 | -11.1 |
| South 4 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,700 | 26% | 51% | 1% | 22% | +40.1 | -17.9 | -1.2 | -21.0 |