Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
1/31 Game 2
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+67.2pt). The game was decided in East 2, 3 honba: Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +38.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 3,000 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 25% | +9.6 | -1.6 | -2.7 | -5.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 24% | 22% | 22% | +5.5 | +1.1 | +0.2 | -6.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 5,800 from Saki Kurosawa | 37% | 23% | 23% | 18% | +16.9 | -0.8 | -15.6 | -0.5 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 51% | 21% | 13% | 16% | -11.7 | -6.0 | +24.9 | -7.2 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 4,800 from Saki Kurosawa | 41% | 18% | 28% | 14% | +0.1 | +12.7 | -12.2 | -0.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 1,500 | 41% | 26% | 20% | 13% | -0.4 | +5.1 | -2.7 | -2.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 30% | 18% | 13% | +1.1 | +2.7 | -5.1 | +1.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 41% | 32% | 15% | 12% | +38.9 | -21.7 | -6.8 | -10.5 |
| East 3 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 8,000 | 80% | 9% | 7% | 5% | -1.7 | -5.8 | -12.7 | +20.2 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 1,100 | 80% | 6% | 3% | 11% | +3.0 | +3.9 | -1.5 | -5.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 85% | 7% | 3% | 5% | +1.7 | -2.6 | -4.4 | +5.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Aki Nikaido | 87% | 5% | 2% | 7% | +0.2 | -8.3 | +5.9 | +2.2 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 2,900 from Sho Shiratori | 89% | 3% | 2% | 6% | -5.6 | +7.0 | -0.2 | -1.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 84% | 5% | 3% | 8% | +5.6 | -6.4 | -5.2 | +6.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 92% | 0% | 2% | 6% | -1.0 | -2.1 | +6.0 | -2.9 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 91% | 0% | 3% | 6% | +1.9 | +27.5 | -23.6 | -5.8 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 1,600 from Namba Shibukawa | 95% | 1% | 0% | 4% | +1.9 | +7.0 | +0.1 | -8.9 |