Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/2 Game 1
Seiichi Kondo finished 1st (+64.8pt). The game was decided in South 3: Seiichi Kondo tsumo 12,000, which moved Seiichi Kondo's expected points by +32.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -2.9 | +24.0 | -2.6 | -18.4 |
| East 2 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 43% | 21% | 15% | -6.7 | -12.6 | +27.2 | -7.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 30% | 43% | 10% | +6.2 | -2.3 | -6.7 | +2.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 29% | 36% | 12% | -12.6 | -12.2 | -11.4 | +36.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 22% | 28% | 33% | -9.0 | +2.1 | +2.8 | +4.1 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 4,000 | 12% | 22% | 29% | 37% | +11.4 | -2.7 | -1.2 | -7.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 22% | 30% | 32% | +3.8 | +6.6 | -4.0 | -6.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 27% | 27% | 27% | -7.0 | +4.4 | +2.7 | -0.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 15% | 29% | 29% | 27% | -13.8 | -5.7 | +23.2 | -3.7 |
| South 3 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 20% | 52% | 22% | -5.9 | -15.6 | +32.2 | -10.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 2% | 91% | 6% | -1.3 | -5.1 | -0.8 | +7.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 1% | 94% | 5% | -8.5 | -0.8 | +4.4 | +5.0 |