Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/6 Game 1
Rio Tojyo finished 1st (+64.7pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Rio Tojyo tsumo 18,000, which moved Rio Tojyo's expected points by +71.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 26% | 25% | 23% | 26% | -35.6 | -1.9 | +36.8 | +0.8 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 4,000 | 7% | 19% | 52% | 22% | -1.0 | -6.2 | -4.5 | +11.7 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 15% | 47% | 31% | +1.5 | -4.4 | +7.5 | -4.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Jun Murakami ron 12,000 from Rio Tojyo | 6% | 13% | 55% | 26% | -2.7 | +40.3 | -37.6 | 0.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 46% | 21% | 27% | -2.0 | +8.9 | -2.6 | -4.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 56% | 18% | 21% | +33.2 | -9.0 | -12.2 | -11.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 4,000 | 20% | 49% | 14% | 17% | -8.3 | -4.3 | -7.1 | +19.7 |
| South 2 | Jun Murakami ron 1,500 from Rio Tojyo | 14% | 44% | 11% | 32% | -0.7 | +11.2 | -6.4 | -4.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 57% | 8% | 25% | +4.9 | -2.3 | +1.4 | -3.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 18,000 | 13% | 55% | 9% | 22% | -20.6 | -27.7 | +71.1 | -22.8 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 16% | 71% | 10% | -6.1 | +9.8 | -0.5 | -3.1 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 19% | 73% | 7% | -11.0 | -6.4 | +21.5 | -4.1 |