Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/7 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+56.0pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +37.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,900 from Arisa Date | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +7.5 | -1.0 | -4.5 | -2.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 24% | 22% | 24% | +3.8 | -5.4 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 21% | 21% | 25% | -19.6 | +34.1 | -7.0 | -7.5 |
| East 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,700 | 17% | 47% | 17% | 19% | +7.9 | -3.1 | -3.5 | -1.4 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 45% | 16% | 17% | -12.5 | -11.3 | +33.7 | -9.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 15% | 33% | 37% | 15% | -0.8 | +5.2 | -2.3 | -2.1 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 15% | 38% | 34% | 12% | +36.0 | -36.5 | +2.9 | -2.4 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date ron 5,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 42% | 12% | 36% | 11% | -18.4 | -0.5 | +20.3 | -1.4 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 10% | 61% | 8% | +28.7 | -12.9 | -10.0 | -5.7 |
| South 3 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 5,200 | 52% | 2% | 41% | 5% | +3.5 | -10.4 | -8.6 | +15.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 62% | 0% | 28% | 9% | -3.0 | -1.4 | -1.5 | +5.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 57% | 0% | 29% | 13% | -25.5 | -3.2 | +37.6 | -8.9 |