Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/7 Game 2
Date Arisa finished 1st (+56.0pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +36.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,900 from Date Arisa | 26% | 25% | 26% | 23% | +7.9 | +0.4 | -9.3 | +0.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 31% | 25% | 19% | 25% | +3.5 | -6.9 | +3.6 | -0.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 22% | 21% | 24% | -20.3 | +34.4 | -5.8 | -8.3 |
| East 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 2,700 | 18% | 47% | 17% | 18% | +5.3 | -2.5 | -3.4 | +0.6 |
| East 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 44% | 15% | 19% | -7.5 | -13.1 | +32.6 | -11.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 1,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 18% | 32% | 37% | 13% | -4.6 | +6.3 | -1.3 | -0.4 |
| East 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 14% | 38% | 35% | 14% | +36.2 | -36.1 | +2.9 | -2.9 |
| South 1 | Date Arisa ron 5,200 from Katsumata Kenji | 40% | 13% | 37% | 10% | -17.1 | -1.7 | +19.2 | -0.5 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 9% | 61% | 10% | +29.0 | -13.0 | -9.9 | -6.0 |
| South 3 | Shiratori Sho tsumo 5,200 | 53% | 2% | 40% | 6% | +3.6 | -10.0 | -8.3 | +14.7 |
| South 4 | Draw | 62% | 0% | 28% | 9% | -3.6 | -1.6 | -0.8 | +6.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji | 57% | 0% | 29% | 14% | -25.1 | -2.5 | +36.8 | -9.2 |