Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/9 Game 1
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+57.5pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +48.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 5,200 | 26% | 26% | 23% | 25% | -8.3 | +12.5 | -0.3 | -3.9 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 20% | 34% | 24% | 23% | +11.4 | -6.5 | -3.8 | -1.1 |
| East 3 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 26% | 30% | 22% | 23% | -4.6 | +1.8 | -2.6 | +5.4 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 32% | 18% | 26% | +40.7 | -11.9 | -7.8 | -21.0 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 6,000 | 63% | 17% | 11% | 9% | +15.1 | -7.8 | -4.2 | -3.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 78% | 9% | 7% | 6% | +0.7 | -0.5 | +5.5 | -5.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 82% | 7% | 6% | 5% | +1.9 | -7.2 | +2.4 | +2.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 9,600 from Namba Shibukawa | 87% | 1% | 6% | 5% | -3.6 | -1.8 | +27.6 | -22.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 8,000 | 80% | 1% | 17% | 2% | +3.7 | -5.6 | -11.2 | +13.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 93% | 0% | 3% | 4% | -1.3 | -4.3 | -2.1 | +7.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 6,000 | 91% | 0% | 3% | 5% | -5.3 | -13.2 | -9.3 | +27.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 84% | 0% | 3% | 13% | -29.8 | -5.5 | -13.1 | +48.4 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 0% | 1% | 76% | -8.7 | +0.6 | -0.1 | +8.2 |