Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/14 Game 1
Rio Tojyo finished 1st (+61.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000, which moved Rio Tojyo's expected points by +38.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 25% | 24% | 24% | 27% | -24.4 | -0.3 | -2.0 | +26.7 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 22% | 20% | 47% | -0.1 | -7.4 | +8.0 | -0.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 16% | 26% | 47% | -9.6 | -10.2 | +35.0 | -15.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 1,500 | 7% | 10% | 56% | 27% | -3.6 | -2.1 | +5.4 | +0.2 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 5,200 | 5% | 8% | 60% | 28% | +13.9 | -2.6 | -5.7 | -5.7 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 9% | 59% | 24% | +1.5 | -3.2 | -2.5 | +4.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 1,300 from Kei Nakabayashi | 10% | 7% | 54% | 29% | +7.1 | -5.1 | +1.7 | -3.7 |
| South 1 | Rumi Nikaido ron 7,700 from Kei Nakabayashi | 12% | 6% | 59% | 23% | +20.3 | -16.5 | -2.7 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 1,100 | 22% | 3% | 53% | 22% | -3.7 | -2.3 | +2.4 | +3.6 |
| South 2 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,600 from Kei Nakabayashi | 17% | 2% | 57% | 25% | -3.4 | -6.9 | +1.7 | +8.6 |
| South 3 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 0% | 59% | 29% | -8.8 | -1.8 | -28.1 | +38.7 |
| South 4 | Rumi Nikaido ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 3% | 0% | 8% | 89% | +23.2 | +0.2 | -26.9 | +3.5 |