Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/16 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+95.6pt). The game was decided in East 2: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +31.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Taro Suzuki | 26% | 26% | 24% | 24% | -14.4 | +9.0 | +2.2 | +3.1 |
| East 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 31% | 25% | 27% | -8.3 | +31.3 | -12.4 | -10.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,600 from Taro Suzuki | 10% | 59% | 15% | 15% | -8.0 | -1.9 | -0.1 | +9.9 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 7% | 57% | 15% | 21% | -2.7 | +14.7 | -2.1 | -9.9 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Taro Suzuki | 5% | 75% | 9% | 12% | -7.9 | +9.6 | +1.0 | -2.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 86% | 6% | 6% | +0.9 | -3.5 | +5.5 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Tomohiro Honda | 3% | 82% | 9% | 6% | -2.3 | +10.5 | -9.8 | +1.6 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 93% | 3% | 3% | +0.7 | +1.1 | -5.5 | +3.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 93% | 2% | 4% | -7.2 | +22.3 | -8.3 | -6.7 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | -19.7 | +12.0 | +6.1 | +1.5 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 12,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +31.5 | -0.6 | -33.7 | +2.8 |
| South 3 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -20.0 | -5.9 | +45.2 | -19.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -1.2 | +0.2 | -25.6 | +26.7 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 4,800 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -2.1 | -1.6 | -2.3 | +6.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 1% | +25.6 | -2.4 | -18.0 | -5.2 |