Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2022-23 Regular Season

2/16 Game 2

Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+53.2pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +24.1.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Setokuma Naoki● Nikaido Rumi● Takamiya Mari● Sonoda Ken0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Setokuma● Nikaido● Takamiya● Sonoda
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSetokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Nikaido Rumi
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Sonoda Ken
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
Nikaido Rumi
Expected pt change
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Sonoda Ken
Expected pt change
East 1Sonoda Ken tsumo 5,20025%26%24%25%-9.8-3.8-1.6+15.2
East 2Nikaido Rumi tsumo 6,00017%24%23%36%-5.1+15.5-3.8-6.6
East 2, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki tsumo 8,00015%34%21%31%+24.1-14.4-6.7-3.0
East 3Setokuma Naoki tsumo 4,00031%24%17%29%+15.5-1.2-10.8-3.6
East 4Setokuma Naoki ron 1,000 from Sonoda Ken45%20%11%24%+6.7-0.2-0.3-6.1
South 1Sonoda Ken ron 1,000 from Nikaido Rumi53%19%10%18%-0.3-2.1-2.5+4.8
South 2Draw54%17%9%20%+6.9-5.1-2.3+0.5
South 3, 1 honbaDraw65%9%8%18%+2.2+2.7-11.6+6.8
South 4, 2 honbaTakamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken72%8%1%19%+12.5-8.7+46.3-50.1

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)