Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/16 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+53.2pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +24.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Nikaido Rumi 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Nikaido Rumi Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 5,200 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -9.8 | -3.8 | -1.6 | +15.2 |
| East 2 | Nikaido Rumi tsumo 6,000 | 17% | 24% | 23% | 36% | -5.1 | +15.5 | -3.8 | -6.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 34% | 21% | 31% | +24.1 | -14.4 | -6.7 | -3.0 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 4,000 | 31% | 24% | 17% | 29% | +15.5 | -1.2 | -10.8 | -3.6 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 1,000 from Sonoda Ken | 45% | 20% | 11% | 24% | +6.7 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -6.1 |
| South 1 | Sonoda Ken ron 1,000 from Nikaido Rumi | 53% | 19% | 10% | 18% | -0.3 | -2.1 | -2.5 | +4.8 |
| South 2 | Draw | 54% | 17% | 9% | 20% | +6.9 | -5.1 | -2.3 | +0.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 65% | 9% | 8% | 18% | +2.2 | +2.7 | -11.6 | +6.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken | 72% | 8% | 1% | 19% | +12.5 | -8.7 | +46.3 | -50.1 |