Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/16 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+53.2pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +24.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 5,200 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -9.4 | -2.9 | -2.6 | +14.9 |
| East 2 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 6,000 | 20% | 22% | 23% | 35% | -4.8 | +16.3 | -6.1 | -5.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 32% | 20% | 32% | +24.0 | -10.9 | -6.1 | -7.0 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 33% | 25% | 16% | 27% | +14.3 | -3.0 | -10.6 | -0.6 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,000 from Ken Sonoda | 45% | 21% | 9% | 25% | +4.1 | +1.7 | -0.3 | -5.5 |
| South 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 1,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 50% | 22% | 9% | 19% | +4.5 | -6.6 | -2.5 | +4.5 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 57% | 15% | 8% | 20% | +3.2 | -1.3 | -2.2 | +0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 63% | 11% | 7% | 19% | +2.1 | +2.1 | -11.3 | +7.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 68% | 11% | 1% | 20% | +14.1 | -9.5 | +46.2 | -50.8 |