Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/17 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+70.2pt). The game was decided in East 3: Akina Mizuhara ron 12,000 from Seiichi Kondo, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +24.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +2.6 | -2.9 | +2.5 | -2.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 3,900 | 27% | 23% | 26% | 25% | +14.7 | -3.1 | -5.0 | -6.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 38% | 20% | 22% | 21% | +0.2 | -23.5 | +23.5 | -0.1 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 5,200 | 36% | 8% | 37% | 19% | -8.6 | -5.8 | +16.4 | -2.1 |
| East 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 12,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 27% | 6% | 52% | 16% | -2.9 | -20.6 | +24.0 | -0.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 2,700 | 16% | 1% | 74% | 9% | +8.4 | -1.1 | -3.8 | -3.6 |
| East 4 | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 20% | 1% | 71% | 8% | -3.3 | -0.5 | +7.7 | -4.0 |
| South 1 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 4,000 | 14% | 1% | 81% | 4% | -8.0 | +8.1 | +2.8 | -2.9 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 1% | 90% | 4% | -6.1 | -9.4 | -1.2 | +16.7 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,800 from Sho Shiratori | 2% | 0% | 92% | 6% | +2.3 | +0.6 | +8.4 | -11.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 2,000 | 1% | 0% | 97% | 2% | -0.1 | -1.6 | -3.4 | +5.1 |
| South 4 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | +3.4 | +8.4 | +0.2 | -12.0 |