Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/20 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+57.8pt). The game was decided in South 1: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +39.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +7.6 | -1.3 | -3.0 | -3.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 5,200 | 30% | 24% | 23% | 23% | -15.4 | -4.2 | +21.2 | -1.6 |
| East 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 20% | 37% | 23% | -3.6 | -12.0 | +20.7 | -5.1 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 11% | 58% | 17% | -9.9 | +31.9 | -13.4 | -8.6 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 31% | 44% | 13% | -1.9 | -4.1 | +2.8 | +3.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 2,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 11% | 28% | 46% | 15% | +10.8 | +3.2 | -8.7 | -5.2 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 33% | 39% | 12% | -18.6 | +39.8 | -10.9 | -10.2 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 77% | 17% | 4% | +1.4 | -4.6 | +4.1 | -0.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 74% | 20% | 4% | +42.6 | -3.7 | -27.5 | -11.3 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 74% | 4% | 3% | +3.8 | -3.1 | -3.4 | +2.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 25% | 68% | 3% | 4% | -7.1 | +16.9 | +0.3 | -10.1 |