Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/20 Game 2
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+57.8pt). The game was decided in South 1: Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +39.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | +7.2 | -1.9 | -3.6 | -1.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 5,200 | 30% | 25% | 22% | 23% | -12.5 | -4.0 | +18.4 | -1.9 |
| East 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 22% | 35% | 22% | -6.1 | -14.5 | +26.5 | -5.9 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 10% | 63% | 15% | -7.2 | +36.1 | -19.9 | -9.0 |
| East 4 | Draw | 12% | 35% | 40% | 14% | -4.3 | -2.5 | +4.5 | +2.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 2,600 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 10% | 32% | 44% | 14% | +13.5 | -0.9 | -7.3 | -5.3 |
| South 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 33% | 39% | 11% | -19.6 | +39.1 | -11.6 | -7.9 |
| South 2 | Draw | 3% | 76% | 17% | 4% | +0.3 | -4.5 | +5.0 | -0.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 73% | 20% | 5% | +43.0 | -3.1 | -28.5 | -11.4 |
| South 4 | Draw | 20% | 73% | 3% | 4% | +4.0 | -5.4 | -3.4 | +4.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 27% | 64% | 3% | 6% | -7.6 | +19.4 | +0.8 | -12.7 |