Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/21 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+72.2pt). The game was decided in South 3: Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +46.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,600 from Jun Murakami | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -7.9 | +9.5 | -2.9 | +1.2 |
| East 2 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 3,900 | 20% | 30% | 22% | 27% | -4.3 | +10.9 | -1.6 | -5.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 40% | 20% | 23% | +35.7 | -19.9 | -9.4 | -6.3 |
| East 3 | Yu Suzuki ron 2,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 44% | 23% | 14% | 18% | +0.8 | -4.4 | -0.1 | +3.6 |
| East 4 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 46% | 20% | 13% | 21% | -9.4 | +37.9 | -8.6 | -19.9 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Yu Suzuki | 32% | 51% | 9% | 8% | -1.8 | +0.7 | +20.1 | -19.0 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 28% | 53% | 17% | 3% | +4.6 | -30.8 | +27.4 | -1.2 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000 | 36% | 21% | 40% | 4% | -23.0 | -14.9 | +46.3 | -8.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami | 1% | 1% | 98% | 0% | -21.1 | +6.9 | -0.3 | +14.5 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,600 from Yu Suzuki | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | +1.2 | +7.1 | +2.6 | -10.9 |