Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/23 Game 1
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+104.1pt). The game was decided in East 4: Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +40.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 27% | 24% | 24% | 25% | -8.1 | -18.2 | +25.0 | +1.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 13% | 43% | 25% | +0.6 | +5.0 | -3.8 | -1.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 6,000 | 20% | 16% | 41% | 24% | -7.6 | +19.5 | -4.8 | -7.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 17% | 28% | 36% | 20% | +36.9 | -3.7 | -33.6 | +0.4 |
| East 3 | Seiichi Kondo ron 2,600 from Ken Sonoda | 44% | 23% | 13% | 20% | +14.1 | -9.3 | -5.4 | +0.6 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 60% | 14% | 9% | 18% | -10.6 | +40.0 | -10.5 | -18.9 |
| South 1 | Seiichi Kondo ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori | 42% | 47% | 4% | 7% | +28.6 | -8.6 | +4.3 | -24.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 73% | 24% | 2% | 1% | -1.4 | +0.8 | -1.9 | +2.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 5,800 from Saki Kurosawa | 74% | 23% | 2% | 1% | -8.9 | +20.4 | -13.2 | +1.7 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 52% | 46% | 1% | 1% | -4.8 | +4.4 | -1.4 | +1.9 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 44% | 54% | 1% | 1% | +0.6 | -12.9 | +24.6 | -12.3 |
| South 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 54% | 42% | 4% | 1% | -14.1 | +27.1 | -2.4 | -10.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 83% | 0% | 0% | -4.6 | +4.5 | -1.7 | +1.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 9% | 90% | 0% | 0% | -19.1 | +2.9 | -3.0 | +19.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 98% | 0% | 1% | -0.8 | -0.6 | -1.9 | +3.3 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 32,000 from Shingo Hori | 1% | 98% | 0% | 1% | +2.2 | +34.9 | +4.4 | -41.4 |