Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/23 Game 1
Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+104.1pt). The game was decided in East 4: Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +37.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -3.5 | -20.0 | +23.8 | -0.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 20% | 13% | 43% | 24% | -2.1 | +6.5 | -2.8 | -1.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 6,000 | 19% | 17% | 41% | 24% | -6.2 | +16.7 | -4.6 | -5.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 12,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 17% | 26% | 36% | 21% | +35.9 | -2.3 | -33.5 | 0.0 |
| East 3 | Kondo Seiichi ron 2,600 from Sonoda Ken | 43% | 23% | 15% | 20% | +14.2 | -8.9 | -5.8 | +0.4 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 58% | 15% | 10% | 18% | -9.6 | +37.4 | -8.4 | -19.3 |
| South 1 | Kondo Seiichi ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo | 42% | 45% | 6% | 7% | +27.9 | -7.9 | +1.9 | -21.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 72% | 23% | 3% | 2% | -0.2 | +3.0 | -2.3 | -0.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 5,800 from Kurosawa Saki | 73% | 23% | 2% | 1% | -8.8 | +18.8 | -11.6 | +1.5 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Draw | 53% | 45% | 1% | 1% | -4.4 | +5.6 | -3.4 | +2.2 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 12,000 | 44% | 54% | 1% | 1% | -0.6 | -12.8 | +24.9 | -11.5 |
| South 3 | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo | 54% | 42% | 3% | 1% | -12.7 | +26.0 | -2.5 | -10.8 |
| South 4 | Draw | 18% | 81% | 0% | 0% | -4.6 | +4.7 | -2.0 | +1.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 12,000 from Kondo Seiichi | 11% | 89% | 0% | 0% | -19.4 | +3.8 | -2.6 | +18.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Draw | 1% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -1.6 | -0.9 | -1.5 | +4.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 32,000 from Hori Shingo | 0% | 98% | 0% | 1% | +2.6 | +34.7 | +3.9 | -41.3 |