Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/24 Game 1
Hinata Aiko finished 1st (+67.5pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Hinata Aiko tsumo 18,000, which moved Hinata Aiko's expected points by +42.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | -1.1 | -16.5 | +19.3 | -1.7 |
| East 2 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 7,800 | 22% | 14% | 40% | 23% | -9.4 | +19.7 | -5.7 | -4.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 17% | 26% | 36% | 21% | +24.9 | -3.8 | -23.7 | +2.6 |
| East 3 | Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 35% | 22% | 19% | 23% | +33.1 | -0.7 | -29.5 | -2.9 |
| East 4 | Hinata Aiko ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 68% | 13% | 4% | 14% | -4.5 | -28.1 | +1.2 | +31.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 57% | 4% | 4% | 35% | +3.2 | +1.9 | -5.9 | +0.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 18,000 | 61% | 4% | 2% | 33% | -24.8 | -10.7 | -6.9 | +42.4 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 1% | 1% | 81% | +20.2 | -3.2 | -2.8 | -14.3 |
| South 1 | Hinata Aiko ron 1,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 39% | 1% | 1% | 59% | -3.0 | -0.4 | -1.5 | +4.9 |
| South 2 | Mizuhara Akina ron 5,200 from Hinata Aiko | 33% | 0% | 0% | 67% | +7.4 | -4.3 | +8.8 | -11.9 |
| South 3 | Matsugase Takaya ron 5,200 from Sasaki Hisato | 50% | 0% | 1% | 49% | -16.8 | +12.2 | -8.4 | +13.0 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,900 from Mizuhara Akina | 19% | 0% | 0% | 81% | -3.7 | +4.3 | -7.1 | +6.6 |