Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/27 Game 2
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+74.8pt). The game was decided in East 4: Ken Sonoda tsumo 18,000, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +49.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaharu Ooi ron 5,800 from Ken Sonoda | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +16.2 | +1.5 | -1.3 | -16.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 38% | 25% | 22% | 15% | -2.0 | +0.2 | +12.9 | -11.1 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 2,000 | 34% | 25% | 31% | 10% | +0.8 | -8.1 | +6.0 | +1.3 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 18% | 36% | 11% | -1.9 | +2.4 | +4.6 | -5.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 33% | 19% | 39% | 9% | -14.6 | -8.9 | +29.8 | -6.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 16% | 10% | 70% | 5% | -4.9 | -4.6 | -1.3 | +10.8 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 18,000 | 14% | 7% | 71% | 8% | -16.9 | -15.7 | -16.6 | +49.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 7,700 from Kei Nakabayashi | 8% | 6% | 50% | 36% | +1.4 | -15.3 | -4.1 | +18.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 3,000 | 7% | 2% | 39% | 52% | -2.2 | -1.5 | -4.8 | +8.5 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 5% | 1% | 32% | 62% | +2.7 | +1.9 | -30.8 | +26.2 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 18,000 | 3% | 1% | 5% | 92% | -7.5 | -7.0 | -8.8 | +23.4 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,200 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -1.3 | +13.1 | -2.0 | -9.8 |
| South 1 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 98% | -11.1 | -5.9 | +17.8 | -0.8 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -15.8 | +30.4 | -9.5 | -5.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 97% | -2.7 | -11.9 | +17.0 | -2.4 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% | +2.0 | -4.7 | +1.5 | +1.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% | -5.6 | -7.4 | +27.2 | -14.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 0% | 23% | 77% | +17.5 | -8.2 | -17.4 | +8.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% | +9.4 | -7.0 | -2.1 | -0.4 |