Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
2/27 Game 2
Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+74.8pt). The game was decided in East 4: Sonoda Ken tsumo 18,000, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +48.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ooi Takaharu ron 5,800 from Sonoda Ken | 24% | 25% | 24% | 28% | +19.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -18.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 36% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1.7 | +0.5 | +12.3 | -11.1 |
| East 2 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 2,000 | 35% | 24% | 31% | 10% | +1.7 | -5.7 | +3.6 | +0.3 |
| East 3 | Draw | 36% | 19% | 34% | 11% | -3.2 | +2.4 | +5.1 | -4.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,000 | 33% | 20% | 38% | 9% | -13.4 | -11.0 | +32.8 | -8.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,000 | 16% | 10% | 70% | 5% | -4.5 | -3.7 | -2.4 | +10.6 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 18,000 | 14% | 9% | 71% | 7% | -17.7 | -15.5 | -15.7 | +48.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 7,700 from Nakabayashi Kei | 9% | 7% | 51% | 33% | +2.8 | -16.3 | -5.2 | +18.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 3,000 | 7% | 2% | 40% | 51% | -2.8 | -1.2 | -4.2 | +8.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 6% | 2% | 32% | 61% | +3.1 | +1.9 | -31.7 | +26.7 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 18,000 | 3% | 1% | 4% | 91% | -8.9 | -6.3 | -8.4 | +23.6 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 5,200 from Sonoda Ken | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -3.1 | +13.1 | -1.3 | -8.7 |
| South 1 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -9.8 | -6.7 | +17.4 | -0.9 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -14.4 | +30.1 | -9.7 | -5.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 97% | -3.1 | -11.4 | +16.3 | -1.8 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% | +2.8 | -6.1 | +3.2 | +0.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 96% | -6.6 | -6.0 | +26.1 | -13.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 0% | 0% | 22% | 78% | +17.8 | -8.7 | -17.6 | +8.5 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% | +9.0 | -6.6 | -1.6 | -0.8 |