Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/3 Game 2
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+81.1pt). The game was decided in East 1: Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +32.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 26% | 23% | 25% | +32.1 | -10.1 | -8.4 | -13.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 50% | 17% | 16% | 16% | +28.5 | -11.4 | -8.6 | -8.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,300 from Go Kobayashi | 76% | 8% | 8% | 8% | -2.4 | +4.6 | -4.1 | +2.0 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 18,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 75% | 9% | 7% | 9% | -3.9 | +38.7 | +1.0 | -35.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 65% | 27% | 6% | 1% | +18.0 | -5.3 | +0.2 | -12.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 82% | 14% | 3% | 0% | +1.5 | -3.8 | +2.5 | -0.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 2,400 from Naoki Setokuma | 84% | 11% | 4% | 1% | +0.3 | -6.2 | +7.2 | -1.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 85% | 9% | 5% | 0% | +4.5 | +0.2 | -2.0 | -2.7 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 91% | 7% | 2% | 1% | -0.4 | +14.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 87% | 10% | 2% | 0% | -2.5 | -1.2 | +3.2 | +0.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 2,000 | 88% | 10% | 3% | 0% | +3.2 | -5.3 | +3.0 | -0.9 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 95% | 3% | 2% | 0% | +0.1 | +12.9 | -13.4 | +0.3 |
| South 4 | Go Kobayashi ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 95% | 5% | 0% | 0% | +2.2 | -1.7 | +4.9 | -5.3 |