Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/6 Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+49.5pt). The game was decided in South 1: Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Kazunori Takizawa, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +29.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,600 from Kei Nakabayashi | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -12.4 | +0.2 | +9.1 | +3.1 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 26% | 31% | 27% | +0.5 | -5.8 | -0.2 | +5.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 21% | 32% | 30% | -4.2 | +4.8 | +2.6 | -3.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 23% | 32% | 29% | +1.9 | -1.2 | +2.4 | -3.1 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Jun Murakami | 17% | 23% | 34% | 26% | +20.8 | -2.2 | -7.3 | -11.3 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 22% | 28% | 20% | +3.5 | -3.5 | -3.9 | +3.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,600 from Rio Tojyo | 33% | 20% | 25% | 22% | +15.9 | -0.4 | -9.5 | -6.0 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 48% | 18% | 18% | 16% | +29.2 | -31.3 | +0.8 | +1.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 78% | 3% | 11% | 9% | -3.9 | +1.0 | +5.8 | -2.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 76% | 4% | 13% | 8% | -0.6 | +4.7 | -2.8 | -1.4 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 6,000 | 76% | 5% | 12% | 8% | -3.8 | +22.0 | -7.5 | -10.6 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 73% | 10% | 11% | 6% | -17.8 | +38.7 | -12.1 | -8.9 |
| South 2, 5 honba | Jun Murakami ron 6,400 from Kazunori Takizawa | 46% | 41% | 8% | 5% | +10.3 | -24.4 | -6.6 | +20.8 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Rio Tojyo | 68% | 14% | 7% | 11% | +10.6 | +1.7 | -12.1 | -0.2 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 84% | 7% | 0% | 9% | -0.8 | +2.4 | +24.5 | -26.1 |