Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/6 Game 2
Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+71.4pt). The game was decided in South 1: Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +39.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -21.4 | -2.5 | +1.3 | +22.5 |
| East 2 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 23% | 23% | 43% | -10.6 | +35.4 | -11.4 | -13.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 2,000 | 6% | 50% | 15% | 28% | -3.9 | -2.7 | -2.2 | +8.8 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari ron 2,000 from Sonoda Ken | 5% | 47% | 14% | 34% | +0.3 | +0.2 | -9.9 | +9.5 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 4% | 46% | 8% | 42% | -2.8 | -22.2 | +21.1 | +3.8 |
| South 1 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 26% | 19% | 51% | -14.1 | -11.3 | +39.0 | -13.6 |
| South 2 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 15% | 54% | 30% | -6.0 | +37.2 | -18.0 | -13.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 51% | 29% | 19% | +0.8 | +2.1 | +4.0 | -6.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 52% | 32% | 15% | -3.9 | -20.7 | +32.5 | -7.9 |
| South 3 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 16% | 77% | 7% | -2.5 | -8.6 | +17.8 | -6.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Tojyo Rio | 0% | 3% | 95% | 2% | -4.3 | -1.1 | -0.7 | +6.1 |
| South 4 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 1% | 96% | 3% | -1.7 | -9.7 | -3.7 | +15.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 2,000 from Sonoda Ken | 0% | 0% | 94% | 6% | -0.2 | -4.1 | -3.3 | +7.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 1,300 from Tojyo Rio | 0% | 1% | 91% | 9% | -1.8 | -4.1 | +6.1 | -0.1 |