Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/7 Game 1
Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+95.7pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Okada Sayaka tsumo 18,000, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +50.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 27% | 25% | 24% | -11.9 | -8.4 | -3.2 | +23.5 |
| East 2 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 20% | 24% | 41% | -7.5 | -15.4 | -8.4 | +31.2 |
| East 3 | Draw | 7% | 7% | 13% | 73% | -5.0 | +0.4 | +1.1 | +3.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 6% | 6% | 12% | 76% | +5.2 | -1.5 | +0.8 | -4.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 8% | 8% | 14% | 71% | -3.5 | +4.4 | -2.7 | +1.8 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 8% | 11% | 74% | -7.5 | -7.9 | -8.8 | +24.2 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki | 2% | 2% | 2% | 95% | -4.9 | +28.8 | -3.4 | -20.5 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 12% | 5% | 80% | -16.8 | -9.4 | +30.0 | -3.8 |
| South 2 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 8% | 14% | 77% | -1.1 | +6.2 | -3.7 | -1.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 12% | 13% | 75% | -6.8 | +50.6 | -17.3 | -26.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 65% | 6% | 29% | -4.8 | +23.7 | -6.5 | -12.4 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 90% | 1% | 9% | -3.1 | +11.5 | -2.4 | -6.0 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Draw | 0% | 97% | 1% | 2% | -0.8 | -1.7 | -1.8 | +4.4 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 96% | 1% | 3% | -2.9 | +13.0 | -7.1 | -3.1 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -0.4 | 0.0 | +1.9 | -1.5 |