Game · 2022-23 Regular Season

3/7 Game 1

Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+95.7pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +47.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance	Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance	Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance	Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance	Aiko Hinata Expected pt change	Sayaka Okada Expected pt change	Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change	Aki Nikaido Expected pt change
East 1	Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000	26%	25%	25%	24%	-13.1	-5.3	-6.2	+24.6
East 2	Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000	17%	20%	21%	42%	-6.2	-18.3	-7.5	+32.0
East 3	Exhaustive draw	8%	6%	11%	75%	-7.0	+4.7	+1.6	+0.7
East 3, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	6%	8%	12%	74%	+4.1	-4.9	+4.3	-3.5
East 3, 2 honba	Exhaustive draw	8%	8%	14%	71%	+0.3	+5.5	-6.0	+0.2
East 4, 3 honba	Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000	8%	10%	10%	72%	-10.4	-9.5	-6.0	+25.9
East 4, 4 honba	Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido	2%	1%	2%	95%	-4.6	+30.1	-5.1	-20.4
South 1	Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000	3%	12%	5%	80%	-16.3	-10.2	+30.7	-4.2
South 2	Sayaka Okada tsumo 1,500	0%	9%	15%	76%	-1.1	+7.0	-4.5	-1.4
South 2, 1 honba	Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000	0%	11%	13%	75%	-7.3	+47.9	-16.2	-24.3
South 2, 2 honba	Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000	0%	61%	6%	33%	-4.8	+26.3	-6.7	-14.8
South 2, 3 honba	Sayaka Okada tsumo 7,800	0%	91%	2%	8%	-3.0	+10.7	-3.3	-4.3
South 2, 4 honba	Exhaustive draw	0%	96%	1%	3%	-0.7	-1.5	-0.8	+3.1
South 3, 5 honba	Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000	0%	96%	1%	3%	-3.0	+13.2	-7.5	-2.7
South 4	Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,100	0%	99%	0%	1%	-0.4	+0.5	+1.7	-1.8

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)