Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/7 Game 2
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+70.3pt). The game was decided in East 1: Takaya Matsugase tsumo 18,000, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +41.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 18,000 | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +41.9 | -15.0 | -12.3 | -14.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 60% | 13% | 14% | 14% | -0.4 | +5.2 | -3.2 | -1.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 61% | 14% | 12% | 13% | -2.1 | +6.7 | -1.4 | -3.2 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 4,000 | 58% | 18% | 12% | 12% | -3.0 | -10.8 | -4.3 | +18.0 |
| East 3 | Shingo Hori tsumo 6,000 | 56% | 13% | 11% | 20% | -2.5 | -4.6 | +12.8 | -5.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 2,000 | 54% | 12% | 17% | 18% | +9.3 | -3.8 | -4.8 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 65% | 9% | 11% | 16% | +18.7 | -4.4 | -2.0 | -12.3 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 86% | 3% | 5% | 5% | -1.7 | +7.6 | -3.5 | -2.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,800 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 86% | 5% | 4% | 4% | +0.5 | +16.2 | +0.3 | -17.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 87% | 7% | 4% | 2% | +2.3 | -28.2 | -5.2 | +31.0 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 92% | 0% | 3% | 5% | +0.9 | -20.4 | -0.2 | +19.7 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori | 93% | 0% | 0% | 7% | -4.7 | +11.5 | -24.7 | +18.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 81% | 0% | 0% | 19% | +9.9 | -15.2 | +14.2 | -8.9 |