Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2022-23 Regular Season

3/7 Game 2

Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+70.3pt). The game was decided in East 1: Matsugase Takaya tsumo 18,000, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +44.3.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Matsugase Takaya● Hagiwara Masato● Hori Shingo● Matsumoto Yoshihiro0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Matsugase● Hagiwara● Hori● Matsumoto
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMatsugase Takaya
1st-place chance
Hagiwara Masato
1st-place chance
Hori Shingo
1st-place chance
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
1st-place chance
Matsugase Takaya
Expected pt change
Hagiwara Masato
Expected pt change
Hori Shingo
Expected pt change
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
Expected pt change
East 1Matsugase Takaya tsumo 18,00025%25%24%27%+44.3-16.2-13.0-15.1
East 1, 1 honbaDraw61%12%14%14%-1.4+5.3-2.6-1.3
East 2, 2 honbaDraw61%15%13%12%-2.1+7.2-2.3-2.7
East 2, 3 honbaMatsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 4,00058%18%11%12%-2.1-9.9-3.1+15.0
East 3Hori Shingo tsumo 6,00057%13%11%19%-2.9-5.8+13.1-4.5
East 3, 1 honbaMatsugase Takaya tsumo 2,00056%11%16%17%+10.0-3.7-4.4-1.9
East 4Matsugase Takaya tsumo 8,00066%9%11%14%+17.4-2.9-3.8-10.7
South 1Draw86%4%5%5%-1.3+5.7-2.7-1.7
South 2, 1 honbaHagiwara Masato ron 5,800 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro87%5%4%4%-0.7+17.1-0.1-16.3
South 2, 2 honbaMatsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato86%8%4%2%+3.4-29.6-4.3+30.6
South 3Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato92%0%3%6%+0.4-18.5-1.2+19.3
South 4Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo92%0%0%8%-3.9+10.8-23.6+16.7
South 4, 1 honbaMatsugase Takaya ron 2,000 from Hagiwara Masato82%0%0%18%+9.4-15.3+14.0-8.1

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)