Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/10 Game 1
Kondo Seiichi finished 1st (+65.9pt). The game was decided in East 1: Kondo Seiichi tsumo 8,000, which moved Kondo Seiichi's expected points by +23.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 27% | 22% | 26% | -12.6 | -7.5 | -3.5 | +23.6 |
| East 2 | Draw | 16% | 21% | 20% | 43% | -1.6 | +5.9 | -2.6 | -1.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 1,000 from Nikaido Aki | 16% | 24% | 19% | 42% | +0.1 | -5.5 | -5.4 | +10.9 |
| East 3 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 5,200 | 14% | 20% | 14% | 52% | +15.3 | -3.5 | -9.3 | -2.6 |
| East 4 | Draw | 23% | 16% | 10% | 51% | +4.9 | -4.2 | -2.4 | +1.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 7,700 from Okada Sayaka | 26% | 13% | 9% | 52% | -24.5 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +22.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 5,200 from Sasaki Hisato | 8% | 10% | 6% | 77% | +15.7 | -1.7 | -13.8 | -0.3 |
| South 1 | Kondo Seiichi ron 3,900 from Sasaki Hisato | 11% | 8% | 4% | 77% | -2.2 | +1.0 | -8.2 | +9.3 |
| South 2 | Draw | 4% | 6% | 1% | 88% | -7.9 | +4.6 | +0.8 | +2.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 6% | 2% | 90% | +22.6 | -15.2 | -5.5 | -1.9 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,800 from Nikaido Aki | 8% | 1% | 1% | 91% | +0.6 | -13.0 | +11.9 | +0.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 3,900 | 7% | 0% | 2% | 92% | -1.8 | -6.7 | +10.9 | -2.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 5,200 from Nikaido Aki | 8% | 0% | 3% | 89% | +9.4 | -10.9 | +0.4 | +1.1 |
| South 4 | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 8% | 0% | 0% | 92% | -11.2 | +6.2 | +2.8 | +2.3 |