Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/10 Game 2
Kotaro Uchikawa finished 1st (+54.2pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori, which moved Kotaro Uchikawa's expected points by +39.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | -10.2 | +3.0 | +0.7 | +6.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 18% | 26% | 26% | 31% | -2.9 | -3.6 | -6.4 | +12.9 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 5,200 | 17% | 22% | 22% | 40% | -3.7 | +17.1 | -11.1 | -2.2 |
| East 4 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 7,800 | 14% | 35% | 13% | 38% | -6.2 | -9.3 | -6.3 | +21.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 22% | 9% | 59% | +4.9 | -2.5 | -0.4 | -2.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 5,800 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 11% | 21% | 10% | 59% | +21.3 | +0.9 | -3.1 | -19.0 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 26% | 26% | 10% | 38% | -32.4 | +34.5 | -1.1 | -1.0 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 4,000 | 4% | 59% | 7% | 31% | +13.5 | -5.2 | -4.8 | -3.5 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 8% | 56% | 7% | 29% | -0.4 | -47.1 | +41.9 | +5.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,500 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 15% | 15% | 30% | 41% | +0.9 | -1.0 | +13.2 | -13.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 14% | 12% | 45% | 29% | -3.0 | -27.5 | -9.2 | +39.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 0% | 19% | 77% | -2.3 | -1.4 | -4.5 | +8.2 |