Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/13 Game 1
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+58.5pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +39.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -1.8 | -22.0 | +0.1 | +23.6 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 5,200 | 22% | 13% | 22% | 43% | -5.6 | -7.5 | -3.7 | +16.8 |
| East 3 | Jun Murakami tsumo 4,000 | 16% | 8% | 18% | 59% | +14.9 | -3.3 | -11.0 | -0.6 |
| East 4 | Jun Murakami tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 7% | 11% | 59% | +23.4 | -4.7 | -4.9 | -13.7 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 8,000 | 47% | 5% | 8% | 40% | -12.6 | -7.2 | +22.7 | -2.8 |
| South 2 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000 | 34% | 4% | 21% | 40% | -1.5 | -8.6 | +17.5 | -7.4 |
| South 3 | Namba Shibukawa ron 7,700 from Jun Murakami | 33% | 0% | 35% | 32% | -27.7 | +0.9 | +27.0 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 6% | 0% | 70% | 23% | -2.6 | -1.0 | -35.4 | +39.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 0% | 11% | 86% | -4.8 | +1.6 | -1.3 | +4.5 |