Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/13 Game 2
Uchikawa Kotaro finished 1st (+75.9pt). The game was decided in South 2, 3 honba: Uchikawa Kotaro ron 12,000 from Tojyo Rio, which moved Uchikawa Kotaro's expected points by +44.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 2,000 | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | -6.5 | +8.6 | -2.3 | +0.2 |
| East 2 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 31% | 25% | 25% | -7.9 | -17.7 | +36.5 | -10.9 |
| East 3 | Tojyo Rio ron 1,500 from Sonoda Ken | 13% | 16% | 55% | 17% | +2.2 | -0.1 | +2.4 | -4.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Tojyo Rio ron 5,800 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 15% | 14% | 57% | 14% | -14.8 | -1.7 | +15.4 | +1.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 6% | 10% | 73% | 11% | -0.6 | -0.7 | +3.4 | -2.0 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Draw | 5% | 10% | 75% | 10% | -3.4 | -2.1 | +2.4 | +3.1 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 2,000 | 4% | 9% | 77% | 10% | +11.9 | -2.3 | -2.6 | -7.0 |
| East 4 | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken | 7% | 8% | 77% | 8% | +0.1 | +18.9 | +1.1 | -20.1 |
| South 1 | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 13% | 79% | 3% | +28.3 | -11.6 | -7.6 | -9.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 5,800 from Honda Tomohiro | 18% | 10% | 70% | 2% | +16.8 | -14.5 | -2.9 | +0.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Draw | 32% | 5% | 62% | 1% | -7.1 | -2.7 | +6.5 | +3.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 12,000 from Tojyo Rio | 21% | 4% | 74% | 2% | +44.1 | -2.7 | -41.4 | -0.1 |
| South 3 | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 88% | 0% | 10% | 2% | +8.7 | +1.7 | -3.1 | -7.3 |
| South 4 | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 3,900 from Honda Tomohiro | 99% | 0% | 1% | 1% | +4.5 | -1.4 | +1.8 | -4.9 |