Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/14 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+57.4pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +49.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 3,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +9.6 | -1.9 | -3.6 | -4.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 32% | 24% | 21% | 22% | +5.5 | -3.7 | -0.1 | -1.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 37% | 20% | 22% | 22% | +30.3 | +1.6 | -3.4 | -28.5 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 62% | 17% | 13% | 7% | -5.8 | -6.5 | -5.5 | +17.9 |
| East 2 | Draw | 58% | 15% | 14% | 13% | +1.1 | -6.3 | -3.5 | +8.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 4,000 | 61% | 10% | 12% | 17% | -1.5 | -1.9 | -7.4 | +10.8 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 61% | 10% | 8% | 21% | +2.3 | -0.2 | +5.0 | -7.1 |
| South 1 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 5,200 | 66% | 10% | 10% | 15% | -4.7 | -6.4 | +19.5 | -8.4 |
| South 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 63% | 7% | 18% | 12% | -12.2 | +38.1 | -14.8 | -11.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 47% | 30% | 13% | 10% | +12.2 | -3.5 | -4.0 | -4.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 63% | 21% | 9% | 7% | -3.3 | -9.6 | +36.6 | -23.8 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 55% | 15% | 29% | 2% | +5.2 | -4.6 | -12.2 | +11.6 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 7,700 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 70% | 12% | 14% | 4% | +0.9 | -25.1 | +2.7 | +21.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 73% | 3% | 15% | 9% | -27.5 | -20.0 | +49.0 | -1.6 |