Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/14 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+57.4pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +49.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 3,000 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +10.4 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -6.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 24% | 21% | 22% | +4.7 | -0.6 | -2.4 | -1.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 35% | 24% | 21% | 21% | +33.3 | -2.0 | -2.1 | -29.1 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 65% | 15% | 14% | 6% | -8.2 | -7.2 | -4.2 | +19.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 59% | 14% | 14% | 13% | +0.7 | -2.7 | -2.2 | +4.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 4,000 | 61% | 12% | 13% | 15% | +0.3 | -5.5 | -10.5 | +15.7 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 62% | 9% | 7% | 22% | +1.2 | +2.5 | +4.9 | -8.6 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 5,200 | 65% | 11% | 10% | 15% | -4.6 | -8.1 | +18.9 | -6.2 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 63% | 7% | 17% | 13% | -11.7 | +39.6 | -13.8 | -14.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 47% | 31% | 13% | 9% | +12.5 | -4.8 | -3.3 | -4.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 65% | 19% | 9% | 7% | -5.9 | -8.1 | +37.1 | -23.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 52% | 16% | 30% | 2% | +5.5 | -4.1 | -13.6 | +12.1 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 7,700 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 68% | 14% | 14% | 5% | +2.9 | -27.5 | +3.1 | +21.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 74% | 2% | 15% | 10% | -28.1 | -19.3 | +49.3 | -1.9 |