Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/16 Game 1
Mizuhara Akina finished 1st (+53.4pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000, which moved Mizuhara Akina's expected points by +31.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsugase Takaya ron 5,200 from Setokuma Naoki | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -17.6 | -3.6 | +18.5 | +2.6 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 4,000 | 13% | 22% | 38% | 27% | +14.3 | -8.5 | -4.4 | -1.4 |
| East 3 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 4,000 | 22% | 17% | 35% | 27% | -4.2 | -1.1 | -4.6 | +9.9 |
| East 4 | Draw | 19% | 16% | 30% | 34% | -1.2 | -1.9 | -3.1 | +6.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 15% | 28% | 39% | -8.5 | +31.9 | -7.5 | -15.8 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,900 from Tojyo Rio | 14% | 39% | 23% | 25% | +9.6 | +1.2 | -1.4 | -9.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 2,000 | 20% | 40% | 21% | 19% | -6.9 | +8.7 | -2.8 | +1.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 13% | 48% | 19% | 20% | +3.2 | -1.7 | -4.3 | +2.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 2,000 from Tojyo Rio | 15% | 46% | 18% | 21% | +0.7 | +22.2 | -5.5 | -17.3 |
| South 4 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 83% | 3% | 10% | -10.7 | +6.2 | +26.8 | -22.4 |