Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/16 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+53.4pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +32.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 26% | 23% | 25% | 25% | -17.9 | -0.4 | +16.1 | +2.2 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 14% | 23% | 36% | 27% | +11.5 | -8.3 | -0.2 | -3.0 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 4,000 | 21% | 18% | 38% | 23% | -3.0 | -3.0 | -7.3 | +13.3 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 16% | 30% | 34% | -1.6 | -1.3 | -3.2 | +6.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 15% | 26% | 40% | -7.0 | +32.5 | -9.5 | -16.0 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,900 from Rio Tojyo | 15% | 39% | 20% | 26% | +6.8 | 0.0 | +1.1 | -7.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 2,000 | 18% | 40% | 22% | 20% | -4.5 | +9.6 | -2.4 | -2.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 50% | 19% | 17% | +5.2 | -2.3 | -7.5 | +4.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Rio Tojyo | 16% | 47% | 15% | 21% | -2.1 | +22.9 | -3.2 | -17.7 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 84% | 3% | 10% | -10.5 | +5.5 | +27.0 | -22.1 |