Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/16 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+61.8pt). The game was decided in South 2: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +45.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 24% | 23% | 26% | -7.9 | -2.5 | +13.5 | -3.2 |
| East 2 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 22% | 35% | 24% | -7.8 | +32.0 | -11.2 | -12.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 14% | 46% | 24% | 15% | +30.5 | -2.5 | -5.0 | -23.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 42% | 18% | 7% | -2.3 | -2.9 | +6.0 | -0.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 7,700 from Sayaka Kayamori | 30% | 39% | 25% | 7% | -22.6 | -0.8 | +24.0 | -0.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,200 from Saki Kurosawa | 14% | 38% | 42% | 6% | -2.9 | +3.9 | -15.5 | +14.5 |
| East 4 | Akina Mizuhara ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 15% | 45% | 29% | 11% | -29.8 | -2.2 | +0.8 | +31.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 41% | 29% | 26% | +29.5 | -2.2 | -9.7 | -17.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 42% | 24% | 18% | +9.1 | -4.1 | -0.6 | -4.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 39% | 25% | 16% | +4.6 | +2.0 | -11.0 | +4.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Rumi Nikaido | 24% | 41% | 17% | 18% | -1.9 | -10.2 | +13.2 | -1.1 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 31% | 28% | 18% | -11.6 | -22.2 | +45.5 | -11.7 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 7% | 7% | 79% | 7% | +1.7 | +0.3 | +4.0 | -6.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 6% | 5% | 84% | 5% | -37.2 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +40.4 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 1% | 86% | 13% | -3.9 | -2.0 | +8.5 | -2.6 |