Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/21 Game 1
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+74.5pt). The game was decided in East 2: Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +31.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 24% | 27% | 25% | -10.9 | +0.7 | +13.2 | -3.0 |
| East 2 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 25% | 35% | 23% | -7.5 | +31.2 | -10.8 | -13.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 49% | 24% | 15% | -7.3 | +2.5 | +0.6 | +4.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 9% | 51% | 23% | 16% | +18.6 | +0.1 | -18.9 | +0.2 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 16% | 52% | 15% | 17% | +2.4 | +2.6 | -24.6 | +19.7 |
| East 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 54% | 4% | 26% | +34.2 | -10.9 | -5.0 | -18.4 |
| South 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 45% | 39% | 3% | 13% | -5.8 | +23.8 | +0.7 | -18.8 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 67% | 2% | 3% | -13.3 | +23.1 | -5.2 | -4.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 5% | 93% | 1% | 1% | -0.7 | +0.6 | +21.0 | -20.9 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 97% | 1% | 0% | +2.4 | -2.6 | +2.2 | -2.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 94% | 2% | 0% | +3.0 | +3.6 | -6.7 | +0.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 98% | 0% | 0% | +2.4 | +0.6 | +2.4 | -5.3 |