Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
3/21 Game 1
Shiratori Sho finished 1st (+74.5pt). The game was decided in East 2: Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000, which moved Shiratori Sho's expected points by +34.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -9.7 | -1.8 | +13.5 | -2.0 |
| East 2 | Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 23% | 33% | 25% | -10.6 | +34.0 | -11.2 | -12.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 11% | 50% | 24% | 15% | -6.9 | +1.6 | +2.9 | +2.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken | 8% | 50% | 25% | 16% | +21.3 | +0.7 | -21.5 | -0.5 |
| East 3 | Okada Sayaka ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken | 19% | 52% | 12% | 17% | 0.0 | +1.0 | -21.0 | +20.0 |
| East 4 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 53% | 4% | 27% | +33.1 | -7.8 | -6.8 | -18.5 |
| South 1 | Shiratori Sho ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 42% | 42% | 4% | 13% | -4.1 | +21.2 | +1.5 | -18.5 |
| South 2 | Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000 | 30% | 65% | 2% | 4% | -14.2 | +23.7 | -5.2 | -4.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 6% | 92% | 1% | 1% | +0.6 | +0.7 | +19.6 | -21.0 |
| South 3 | Draw | 3% | 96% | 1% | 0% | +2.3 | -3.4 | +1.9 | -0.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 5% | 92% | 2% | 1% | +1.5 | +4.7 | -6.0 | -0.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Draw | 1% | 98% | 0% | 1% | +3.0 | +0.8 | +2.3 | -6.2 |