Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/3 Game 2
Date Arisa finished 1st (+78.8pt). The game was decided in South 2: Date Arisa tsumo 32,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +63.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 18,000 | 24% | 26% | 26% | 24% | +48.9 | -17.2 | -16.4 | -15.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 9,600 | 65% | 12% | 13% | 11% | +20.2 | -5.4 | -9.3 | -5.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Draw | 83% | 5% | 5% | 7% | -2.9 | +1.6 | -1.8 | +3.1 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 2,700 | 82% | 6% | 5% | 7% | -0.5 | -6.2 | -3.5 | +10.2 |
| East 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 2,000 | 82% | 4% | 5% | 8% | -0.5 | -1.8 | -4.4 | +6.7 |
| East 4 | Kondo Seiichi ron 2,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 83% | 4% | 3% | 11% | -0.7 | -1.7 | +4.1 | -1.7 |
| South 1 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 86% | 3% | 3% | 9% | -13.4 | -5.4 | -9.8 | +28.7 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa tsumo 32,000 | 68% | 3% | 2% | 28% | -34.7 | -25.3 | -3.7 | +63.7 |
| South 3 | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Date Arisa | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | +0.8 | +15.8 | -9.2 | -7.4 |
| South 4 | Draw | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | -1.2 | -13.6 | +16.8 | -1.9 |