Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/3 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+78.8pt). The game was decided in South 2: Arisa Date tsumo 32,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +63.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 18,000 | 23% | 25% | 26% | 26% | +46.4 | -13.6 | -17.7 | -15.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 9,600 | 60% | 14% | 12% | 14% | +22.3 | -7.2 | -7.1 | -8.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 82% | 6% | 7% | 6% | -3.0 | +2.0 | -2.6 | +3.6 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 2,700 | 80% | 7% | 6% | 7% | -0.1 | -7.0 | -4.7 | +11.8 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 2,000 | 81% | 4% | 5% | 10% | +0.7 | -1.3 | -3.4 | +4.0 |
| East 4 | Seiichi Kondo ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 83% | 3% | 3% | 10% | +0.6 | -0.8 | +2.6 | -2.3 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 88% | 3% | 2% | 7% | -15.4 | -6.8 | -8.3 | +30.5 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 32,000 | 68% | 2% | 2% | 28% | -34.6 | -25.2 | -4.0 | +63.9 |
| South 3 | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 0% | 0% | 0% | 99% | +0.8 | +16.2 | -9.2 | -7.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | -0.9 | -13.7 | +16.7 | -2.1 |