Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/4 Game 2
Hinata Aiko finished 1st (+57.7pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Hinata Aiko ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki, which moved Hinata Aiko's expected points by +35.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -7.3 | -3.3 | +10.6 | 0.0 |
| East 2 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 6,000 | 20% | 23% | 31% | 26% | -4.7 | +15.7 | -4.5 | -6.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 3,000 | 17% | 35% | 28% | 20% | -3.8 | +8.8 | -1.9 | -3.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki | 15% | 40% | 27% | 18% | -0.9 | -35.9 | +1.4 | +35.5 |
| East 3 | Draw | 13% | 15% | 27% | 45% | -1.2 | +7.5 | -5.2 | -1.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 14% | 19% | 22% | 44% | -2.0 | +0.5 | -0.7 | +2.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Suzuki Taro ron 2,600 from Shibukawa Namba | 11% | 18% | 22% | 48% | -16.9 | -2.8 | +15.4 | +4.3 |
| South 2 | Hinata Aiko ron 5,200 from Suzuki Taro | 3% | 15% | 31% | 51% | -0.7 | -1.5 | -16.5 | +18.6 |
| South 3 | Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Nikaido Aki | 2% | 7% | 13% | 78% | +25.4 | -30.4 | -1.2 | +6.2 |
| South 4 | Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Suzuki Taro | 4% | 1% | 4% | 91% | +21.6 | -3.8 | -19.8 | +2.0 |