Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/4 Game 2
Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+57.7pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +35.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 24% | 24% | 27% | -8.2 | -2.6 | +13.3 | -2.5 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 6,000 | 20% | 21% | 34% | 25% | -4.2 | +16.4 | -6.0 | -6.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,000 | 17% | 32% | 29% | 22% | -4.2 | +10.7 | -3.5 | -3.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 14% | 42% | 25% | 19% | +1.2 | -36.4 | -0.3 | +35.5 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 14% | 25% | 47% | -2.1 | +8.4 | -4.9 | -1.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 21% | 20% | 46% | -0.6 | -1.9 | +2.3 | +0.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 2,600 from Namba Shibukawa | 13% | 19% | 22% | 46% | -16.3 | -0.9 | +16.0 | +1.2 |
| South 2 | Aiko Hinata ron 5,200 from Taro Suzuki | 4% | 17% | 32% | 47% | -0.9 | -4.0 | -17.5 | +22.4 |
| South 3 | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 2% | 6% | 14% | 78% | +23.5 | -28.6 | -1.3 | +6.5 |
| South 4 | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 4% | 0% | 3% | 93% | +22.4 | -4.7 | -19.7 | +2.0 |