Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/6 Game 1
Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+71.2pt). The game was decided in East 2: Matsugase Takaya tsumo 16,000, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +40.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Maruyama Kanako 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Maruyama Kanako Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 26% | +32.1 | -11.6 | -11.1 | -9.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 6,000 | 50% | 16% | 17% | 18% | +15.4 | -5.1 | -4.2 | -6.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 64% | 11% | 13% | 13% | -7.0 | -5.8 | +19.7 | -6.9 |
| East 2 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 16,000 | 57% | 10% | 23% | 10% | -10.7 | -20.3 | -9.5 | +40.5 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 44% | 4% | 18% | 34% | -11.6 | -7.1 | +29.5 | -10.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 4,000 | 32% | 3% | 40% | 25% | +16.2 | -4.5 | -8.4 | -3.3 |
| East 4 | Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Maruyama Kanako | 49% | 2% | 28% | 21% | -6.4 | -14.5 | -6.2 | +27.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 38% | 1% | 21% | 40% | -3.2 | +1.5 | -0.3 | +2.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 6,400 from Takizawa Kazunori | 34% | 1% | 22% | 44% | -19.3 | -0.3 | +26.4 | -6.9 |
| South 1 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 18,000 | 19% | 1% | 46% | 34% | +46.0 | -7.2 | -20.1 | -18.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 63% | 0% | 21% | 15% | -1.7 | +2.3 | -4.3 | +3.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 8,000 | 65% | 0% | 17% | 17% | -8.0 | -6.4 | -9.5 | +23.9 |
| South 3 | Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 52% | 0% | 11% | 37% | -10.8 | +0.9 | -19.9 | +29.7 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 6,400 from Maruyama Kanako | 17% | 0% | 0% | 83% | -6.7 | -7.1 | +7.8 | +6.0 |