Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/6 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+71.2pt). The game was decided in East 2: Takaya Matsugase tsumo 16,000, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +38.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | +32.9 | -10.4 | -12.8 | -9.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 6,000 | 51% | 16% | 16% | 17% | +16.6 | -4.5 | -4.9 | -7.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 67% | 11% | 11% | 11% | -11.3 | -6.1 | +19.2 | -1.8 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 16,000 | 56% | 11% | 22% | 12% | -10.2 | -20.0 | -8.0 | +38.2 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 45% | 4% | 17% | 35% | -10.4 | -7.1 | +31.5 | -13.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 4,000 | 33% | 3% | 42% | 23% | +15.3 | -3.1 | -10.0 | -2.2 |
| East 4 | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Kanako Maruyama | 49% | 2% | 28% | 21% | -6.9 | -15.6 | -3.6 | +26.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 1% | 24% | 39% | -0.6 | +1.2 | -3.8 | +3.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 6,400 from Kazunori Takizawa | 37% | 0% | 21% | 42% | -21.7 | -0.7 | +28.0 | -5.6 |
| South 1 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 18,000 | 16% | 1% | 48% | 35% | +46.6 | -6.6 | -21.2 | -18.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 63% | 0% | 21% | 16% | -0.2 | +1.4 | -4.9 | +3.7 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 66% | 0% | 17% | 17% | -7.7 | -5.5 | -9.6 | +22.9 |
| South 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 53% | 0% | 11% | 36% | -12.9 | +0.6 | -18.9 | +31.2 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 6,400 from Kanako Maruyama | 16% | 0% | 0% | 84% | -6.2 | -7.2 | +7.8 | +5.5 |