Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/6 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+68.3pt). The game was decided in South 2: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +30.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Jun Murakami ron 1,500 from Rumi Nikaido | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +2.7 | -1.3 | -2.4 | +1.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 2,600 from Rumi Nikaido | 27% | 24% | 23% | 26% | -0.3 | +9.6 | -9.0 | -0.3 |
| East 2 | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 26% | 30% | 18% | 26% | -1.2 | +28.9 | -26.6 | -1.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 51% | 6% | 22% | -3.6 | +2.4 | +4.1 | -3.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 2,000 | 19% | 56% | 7% | 19% | +9.5 | -2.5 | -1.9 | -5.1 |
| East 3 | Jun Murakami ron 3,900 from Rumi Nikaido | 24% | 54% | 6% | 16% | +10.1 | -1.0 | -11.1 | +1.9 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 31% | 50% | 3% | 16% | -4.4 | +20.0 | -12.1 | -3.4 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 19% | 72% | 1% | 9% | -2.5 | -19.0 | -0.7 | +22.1 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 51% | 1% | 26% | -10.2 | -17.1 | -3.1 | +30.3 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 13% | 26% | 1% | 60% | -6.2 | -6.5 | -9.4 | +22.1 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 5% | 0% | 92% | -4.9 | +1.2 | +1.1 | +2.6 |