Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/11 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+61.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +41.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Namba Shibukawa | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -16.7 | +1.5 | +15.9 | -0.6 |
| East 2 | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 24% | 37% | 24% | -8.0 | +32.3 | -12.6 | -11.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 50% | 24% | 15% | -3.3 | -3.3 | +8.2 | -1.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 47% | 30% | 15% | +8.9 | -1.5 | -3.2 | -4.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 12% | 47% | 26% | 14% | -13.7 | +1.8 | -2.6 | +14.4 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Yuumi Uotani | 7% | 48% | 25% | 20% | +8.3 | -8.7 | +3.4 | -3.0 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 12% | 40% | 29% | 19% | +4.3 | +1.7 | -5.0 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 13% | 43% | 27% | 17% | +40.6 | -4.6 | -2.8 | -33.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 38% | 34% | 22% | 5% | +33.4 | -16.2 | -10.3 | -6.9 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 77% | 13% | 9% | 2% | -2.7 | -8.4 | +29.5 | -18.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 70% | 7% | 22% | 0% | +1.3 | -6.3 | +5.3 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 73% | 2% | 25% | 0% | -4.8 | +10.8 | -5.4 | -0.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 73% | 8% | 19% | 0% | -1.6 | -0.5 | -0.7 | +2.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 72% | 9% | 20% | 0% | -27.6 | -7.1 | +41.4 | -6.7 |