Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/11 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+61.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Sasaki Hisato ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +41.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Uotani Yuumi 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Uotani Yuumi Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,200 from Shibukawa Namba | 25% | 24% | 24% | 27% | -12.9 | -2.1 | +18.5 | -3.4 |
| East 2 | Uotani Yuumi tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 22% | 38% | 24% | -10.6 | +33.6 | -12.1 | -10.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 10% | 48% | 26% | 16% | -1.6 | -2.0 | +4.2 | -0.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 10% | 47% | 28% | 15% | +7.0 | 0.0 | -3.4 | -3.6 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,900 from Shibukawa Namba | 12% | 49% | 25% | 14% | -11.0 | -1.5 | +1.2 | +11.4 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,000 from Uotani Yuumi | 9% | 45% | 27% | 19% | +6.1 | -4.1 | +0.3 | -2.3 |
| South 1 | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 11% | 43% | 28% | 18% | +5.8 | -1.8 | -4.9 | +0.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 14% | 42% | 25% | 19% | +39.8 | -3.2 | -1.7 | -34.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000 | 39% | 35% | 22% | 5% | +34.7 | -16.0 | -12.4 | -6.3 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 77% | 13% | 8% | 2% | -5.4 | -8.2 | +31.6 | -18.1 |
| South 2 | Draw | 68% | 9% | 23% | 0% | +2.2 | -7.3 | +5.6 | -0.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Uotani Yuumi ron 3,900 from Shibukawa Namba | 73% | 2% | 25% | 0% | -4.1 | +10.7 | -5.3 | -1.2 |
| South 4 | Draw | 73% | 7% | 20% | 0% | -1.7 | -0.7 | -1.4 | +3.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei | 72% | 8% | 20% | 1% | -27.7 | -6.7 | +41.6 | -7.2 |