Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/13 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+73.7pt). The game was decided in South 3: Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +43.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yu Suzuki tsumo 6,000 | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | +16.9 | -7.0 | -5.0 | -4.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Yu Suzuki | 37% | 20% | 22% | 21% | -6.8 | -1.7 | -0.3 | +8.7 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Sayaka Okada | 31% | 19% | 22% | 28% | -3.0 | -3.1 | -7.0 | +13.1 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 17% | 18% | 37% | -10.5 | -11.0 | +32.3 | -10.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 11% | 39% | 29% | -6.4 | -4.9 | -14.7 | +26.1 |
| East 4 | Yu Suzuki ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 15% | 8% | 24% | 53% | +21.8 | -17.3 | +0.1 | -4.6 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Yu Suzuki | 29% | 3% | 23% | 45% | -26.3 | -1.6 | +27.7 | +0.2 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 3% | 49% | 42% | -1.3 | +4.4 | -2.8 | -0.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Yu Suzuki tsumo 6,400 | 8% | 4% | 46% | 43% | +22.2 | -12.1 | -4.5 | -5.6 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000 | 22% | 0% | 41% | 37% | -16.8 | -6.1 | +43.4 | -20.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 0% | 93% | 6% | +2.4 | -1.5 | -1.9 | +0.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 2,000 | 1% | 0% | 94% | 5% | -8.6 | -0.4 | +6.3 | +2.7 |