Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/13 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+73.9pt). The game was decided in East 1, 2 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +33.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 6,000 | 26% | 23% | 24% | 27% | +14.4 | -2.5 | -4.4 | -7.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 22% | 21% | 21% | +2.4 | +1.9 | -3.1 | -1.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 38% | 23% | 20% | 20% | +33.3 | -10.7 | -10.1 | -12.5 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 6,000 | 69% | 12% | 11% | 9% | +12.5 | -5.5 | -4.0 | -2.9 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 79% | 8% | 7% | 7% | -11.1 | +23.8 | -6.4 | -6.3 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 69% | 19% | 6% | 6% | +16.2 | -3.7 | -14.7 | +2.2 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,000 | 84% | 9% | 2% | 5% | -0.4 | -1.4 | +7.4 | -5.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,800 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 85% | 8% | 3% | 3% | -1.0 | -1.6 | +13.8 | -11.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,000 | 84% | 8% | 5% | 3% | -2.6 | -1.9 | +9.8 | -5.3 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 81% | 9% | 7% | 2% | -1.0 | -10.5 | +14.0 | -2.4 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 7,800 | 80% | 6% | 12% | 2% | -7.1 | -7.0 | +18.7 | -4.5 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 70% | 5% | 23% | 2% | +5.4 | +0.9 | -15.6 | +9.3 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,600 from Kei Nakabayashi | 81% | 5% | 12% | 2% | +7.7 | -6.8 | +2.0 | -2.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 89% | 2% | 9% | 1% | -0.5 | -2.7 | -0.4 | +3.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 91% | 1% | 7% | 1% | +1.6 | -4.9 | -1.0 | +4.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 94% | 0% | 5% | 1% | +1.2 | -6.9 | -24.0 | +29.7 |
| South 4 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 98% | 0% | 0% | 2% | -3.5 | -1.7 | -4.8 | +10.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 97% | 0% | 0% | 3% | -1.3 | -2.0 | +2.5 | +0.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 2,700 | 96% | 0% | 0% | 5% | +6.4 | -5.2 | -2.0 | +0.9 |