Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/13 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+73.9pt). The game was decided in East 1, 2 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +30.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 6,000 | 26% | 25% | 23% | 26% | +13.5 | -2.3 | -4.3 | -6.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 34% | 22% | 21% | 22% | +5.3 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -4.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 39% | 22% | 20% | 18% | +30.9 | -10.2 | -11.0 | -9.6 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 6,000 | 66% | 12% | 11% | 11% | +14.3 | -6.0 | -5.3 | -2.9 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 79% | 7% | 7% | 7% | -11.8 | +23.4 | -5.1 | -6.4 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 68% | 18% | 7% | 7% | +16.7 | -2.5 | -15.9 | +1.7 |
| East 3 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 3,000 | 85% | 9% | 2% | 4% | -2.2 | -2.0 | +8.1 | -3.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 5,800 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 84% | 8% | 3% | 4% | -0.3 | +0.6 | +14.0 | -14.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 3,000 | 83% | 10% | 5% | 2% | -2.0 | -4.2 | +10.3 | -4.1 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei | 82% | 9% | 7% | 2% | -0.2 | -8.9 | +11.3 | -2.3 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 7,800 | 81% | 6% | 11% | 2% | -6.9 | -7.8 | +19.8 | -5.1 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji | 70% | 5% | 24% | 1% | +3.6 | +0.5 | -13.7 | +9.5 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,600 from Nakabayashi Kei | 79% | 5% | 14% | 2% | +9.2 | -6.8 | +1.5 | -3.9 |
| South 1 | Draw | 88% | 2% | 9% | 1% | -0.9 | -1.5 | -1.3 | +3.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 91% | 2% | 7% | 1% | +0.7 | -5.0 | -0.4 | +4.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 93% | 0% | 6% | 1% | +1.8 | -8.5 | -24.3 | +30.9 |
| South 4 | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 2,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 98% | 0% | 0% | 2% | -3.4 | -0.8 | -4.7 | +8.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 97% | 0% | 0% | 3% | -1.2 | -1.8 | +1.8 | +1.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 2,700 | 96% | 0% | 0% | 4% | +6.3 | -5.6 | -1.8 | +1.2 |