Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/14 Game 2
Shiratori Sho finished 1st (+97.2pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Shiratori Sho ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka, which moved Shiratori Sho's expected points by +37.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +2.8 | -3.5 | -3.4 | +4.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 27% | 23% | 22% | 28% | +37.2 | -0.6 | -5.6 | -31.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 1,500 from Kayamori Sayaka | 57% | 19% | 15% | 9% | +2.9 | +0.4 | +1.8 | -5.1 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 59% | 18% | 16% | 7% | +25.1 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -22.2 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 80% | 10% | 8% | 2% | -5.9 | -4.8 | -4.0 | +14.7 |
| East 2 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,300 from Sonoda Ken | 78% | 9% | 9% | 4% | +2.1 | -2.7 | -1.6 | +2.2 |
| East 3 | Sonoda Ken ron 2,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 82% | 6% | 8% | 3% | -0.8 | +0.1 | +7.2 | -6.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 4,000 | 81% | 7% | 9% | 3% | +10.5 | -0.2 | -7.5 | -2.8 |
| East 4 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 9,600 | 91% | 4% | 4% | 2% | -3.6 | -7.6 | -7.4 | +18.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 90% | 4% | 3% | 4% | -1.3 | -2.3 | -0.4 | +4.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Draw | 89% | 3% | 4% | 4% | -4.3 | +2.0 | -4.3 | +6.6 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 8,000 | 84% | 5% | 4% | 7% | +17.3 | -3.5 | -1.9 | -11.9 |
| South 1 | Shiratori Sho ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 97% | 1% | 1% | 1% | +14.2 | +4.9 | +4.3 | -23.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 2,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +1.4 | +1.0 | +0.2 | -2.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 5,200 from Sonoda Ken | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.6 | +13.1 | -11.5 | -1.1 |
| South 2 | Shiratori Sho tsumo 2,000 | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | +2.9 | -1.3 | -0.1 | -1.5 |
| South 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -2.6 | +16.4 | -9.6 | -4.2 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 24,000 from Sonoda Ken | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.2 | -2.1 | -39.8 | +42.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +0.1 | +1.9 | +2.5 | -4.4 |