Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/14 Game 2
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+97.2pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +36.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +3.7 | -3.1 | -2.8 | +2.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 28% | 22% | 23% | 27% | +36.8 | -0.7 | -5.7 | -30.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 1,500 from Sayaka Kayamori | 56% | 19% | 16% | 10% | +5.1 | -0.7 | +0.9 | -5.3 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 61% | 17% | 15% | 7% | +23.3 | -0.8 | 0.0 | -22.4 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 80% | 9% | 9% | 2% | -7.0 | -4.3 | -3.2 | +14.4 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,300 from Ken Sonoda | 77% | 10% | 9% | 4% | +3.9 | -2.3 | -3.5 | +1.9 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 2,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 83% | 6% | 7% | 3% | -1.2 | -0.4 | +5.4 | -3.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 4,000 | 82% | 6% | 9% | 3% | +9.4 | -0.2 | -4.8 | -4.4 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 9,600 | 91% | 4% | 4% | 1% | -3.7 | -8.3 | -7.0 | +19.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 89% | 4% | 3% | 4% | -0.8 | -1.0 | -2.2 | +4.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 87% | 4% | 4% | 5% | -2.6 | +0.9 | -4.5 | +6.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 85% | 4% | 4% | 7% | +14.6 | -1.8 | -1.7 | -11.1 |
| South 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 96% | 1% | 1% | 2% | +14.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -23.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +2.3 | +0.5 | +1.1 | -3.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 5,200 from Ken Sonoda | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | -0.9 | +12.3 | -11.2 | -0.3 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 2,000 | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | +2.8 | -1.5 | -0.9 | -0.4 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -2.8 | +17.1 | -9.3 | -5.0 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 24,000 from Ken Sonoda | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 | -1.8 | -39.5 | +41.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 | +1.4 | +2.5 | -3.9 |