Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/17 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+54.8pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +50.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 1,500 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -2.5 | +3.1 | +0.1 | -0.7 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,600 from Kazunori Takizawa | 22% | 28% | 23% | 27% | -1.4 | -8.8 | +1.5 | +8.7 |
| East 3 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 20% | 25% | 33% | -3.2 | -5.5 | -13.7 | +22.4 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 17% | 14% | 52% | -3.2 | +7.0 | -1.4 | -2.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 3,900 from Aiko Hinata | 16% | 19% | 14% | 50% | +18.2 | -0.6 | -14.0 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 19% | 9% | 46% | -4.6 | -3.2 | +7.9 | -0.2 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 24% | 18% | 12% | 47% | +5.2 | -3.1 | +9.8 | -11.9 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 16% | 17% | 35% | -3.9 | -8.9 | -5.0 | +17.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 22% | 10% | 11% | 57% | +50.2 | -26.8 | -1.1 | -22.3 |