Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/18 Game 1
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+74.6pt). The game was decided in East 2: Tomohiro Honda tsumo 18,000, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +48.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -13.4 | -6.2 | +21.9 | -2.2 |
| East 2 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 18,000 | 16% | 21% | 40% | 23% | -15.0 | +48.3 | -18.4 | -14.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 60% | 21% | 12% | -0.4 | -6.1 | +8.3 | -1.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Kanako Maruyama | 7% | 53% | 28% | 12% | -2.4 | +14.4 | -11.0 | -0.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 71% | 14% | 9% | -2.7 | +1.3 | -2.7 | +4.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 72% | 13% | 10% | +20.2 | -1.3 | -4.1 | -14.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 74% | 12% | 5% | -4.2 | +1.7 | -1.9 | +4.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 6,000 | 6% | 78% | 11% | 5% | -3.0 | +15.1 | -7.2 | -4.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 3,900 from Kanako Maruyama | 2% | 92% | 4% | 2% | +1.4 | +6.0 | -11.7 | +4.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,600 from Kanako Maruyama | 1% | 95% | 2% | 2% | +2.0 | -0.4 | -11.2 | +9.6 |
| South 3 | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,300 from Namba Shibukawa | 0% | 97% | 1% | 2% | +5.1 | +2.5 | -4.4 | -3.2 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -3.9 | -1.3 | +4.5 | +0.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 6,400 from Namba Shibukawa | 0% | 99% | 0% | 2% | +18.8 | +0.5 | +10.9 | -30.2 |