Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/18 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+110.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 7 honba: Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +34.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +8.0 | -7.0 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 21% | 23% | 24% | +1.9 | +4.7 | -2.6 | -4.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 23% | 24% | 22% | -7.4 | -1.8 | -2.1 | +11.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 22% | 29% | +4.9 | +1.0 | -0.8 | -5.1 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 23% | 21% | 26% | -3.1 | +5.6 | -1.6 | -0.9 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,500 from Masato Hagiwara | 28% | 26% | 20% | 26% | -2.8 | +14.2 | -8.6 | -2.8 |
| East 2, 6 honba | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 36% | 16% | 24% | -2.6 | +2.6 | -1.6 | +1.6 |
| East 2, 7 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 23% | 39% | 15% | 24% | -34.0 | +34.4 | -1.9 | +1.5 |
| East 2, 8 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 68% | 9% | 18% | -6.0 | +24.4 | -7.5 | -10.9 |
| East 2, 9 honba | Jun Murakami ron 1,300 from Sayaka Okada | 2% | 90% | 3% | 5% | -9.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | +9.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 90% | 2% | 7% | -2.0 | +5.0 | -2.1 | -0.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 1% | 94% | 1% | 4% | +18.6 | +1.2 | -19.2 | -0.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 96% | 1% | 3% | -3.4 | -0.3 | +3.2 | +0.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2% | -6.4 | +21.1 | -8.5 | -6.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +0.6 | -0.7 | -0.8 | +0.9 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -2.0 | +0.5 | +2.2 | -0.7 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,300 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +2.3 | +4.8 | -9.6 | +2.5 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +2.4 | +1.4 | -3.0 | -0.8 |