Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/18 Game 2
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+110.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 7 honba: Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +35.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Okada Sayaka ron 2,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +6.9 | -7.2 | +0.6 | -0.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 30% | 20% | 26% | 25% | +2.0 | +4.2 | -3.2 | -3.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Draw | 31% | 22% | 23% | 23% | -3.5 | -2.1 | -3.5 | +9.1 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Draw | 29% | 22% | 21% | 29% | +1.8 | +1.0 | -0.7 | -2.0 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Draw | 29% | 23% | 20% | 28% | -5.4 | +6.5 | +3.2 | -4.2 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,500 from Hagiwara Masato | 26% | 26% | 23% | 26% | +1.6 | +15.7 | -11.7 | -5.7 |
| East 2, 6 honba | Draw | 26% | 38% | 16% | 20% | -3.3 | +1.5 | -4.5 | +6.3 |
| East 2, 7 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka | 24% | 39% | 13% | 24% | -36.2 | +35.6 | +1.6 | -0.9 |
| East 2, 8 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 70% | 9% | 17% | -4.6 | +22.4 | -8.1 | -9.7 |
| East 2, 9 honba | Murakami Jun ron 1,300 from Okada Sayaka | 2% | 89% | 3% | 6% | -10.8 | +0.8 | -0.5 | +10.6 |
| East 3 | Draw | 0% | 91% | 2% | 7% | -1.1 | +4.1 | -3.0 | +0.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 0% | 94% | 1% | 5% | +18.8 | +1.0 | -17.9 | -1.9 |
| South 1 | Draw | 1% | 96% | 0% | 3% | -3.3 | 0.0 | +3.2 | +0.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 98% | 0% | 1% | -5.7 | +20.6 | -8.3 | -6.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Draw | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +0.8 | -0.5 | -2.0 | +1.7 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Draw | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -2.7 | +1.1 | +3.0 | -1.3 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,300 from Hagiwara Masato | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +2.0 | +4.7 | -9.7 | +2.9 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +2.8 | +1.3 | -3.3 | -0.8 |