Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/20 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+54.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Date Arisa tsumo 8,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +51.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Kobayashi Go 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Kobayashi Go Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sonoda Ken ron 7,700 from Setokuma Naoki | 26% | 25% | 23% | 25% | +21.9 | -4.9 | +2.1 | -19.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kobayashi Go ron 2,600 from Sonoda Ken | 43% | 20% | 23% | 13% | -11.2 | +9.9 | +1.0 | +0.3 |
| East 2 | Kobayashi Go tsumo 3,000 | 33% | 27% | 24% | 15% | -2.1 | +8.4 | -4.6 | -1.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Date Arisa | 31% | 34% | 21% | 14% | +1.4 | -1.1 | -4.8 | +4.5 |
| East 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 6,000 | 32% | 33% | 19% | 16% | -4.7 | -9.8 | +19.5 | -5.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,000 | 29% | 24% | 33% | 14% | +15.8 | -1.6 | -8.4 | -5.8 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,000 | 43% | 22% | 24% | 11% | +14.8 | -3.0 | -3.7 | -8.1 |
| South 1 | Draw | 59% | 18% | 18% | 6% | -0.8 | -3.1 | -1.4 | +5.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 5,200 from Kobayashi Go | 61% | 16% | 17% | 6% | +18.6 | -22.1 | +1.5 | +2.0 |
| South 3 | Draw | 85% | 1% | 9% | 5% | -1.7 | -2.6 | +6.1 | -1.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 82% | 1% | 13% | 4% | -5.1 | -8.4 | -1.6 | +15.1 |
| South 4 | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 83% | 1% | 8% | 8% | -34.6 | -7.3 | +51.1 | -9.2 |