Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/20 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+54.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Arisa Date tsumo 8,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +51.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 7,700 from Naoki Setokuma | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | +22.4 | -5.6 | -0.1 | -16.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 2,600 from Ken Sonoda | 41% | 21% | 23% | 14% | -8.6 | +9.0 | -0.6 | +0.2 |
| East 2 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 3,000 | 34% | 28% | 24% | 14% | -2.2 | +7.9 | -1.8 | -4.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Arisa Date | 31% | 33% | 22% | 13% | +0.7 | -1.3 | -6.7 | +7.2 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 6,000 | 33% | 32% | 19% | 16% | -3.9 | -8.4 | +19.0 | -6.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 30% | 26% | 31% | 13% | +15.9 | -2.0 | -7.9 | -6.1 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 44% | 23% | 23% | 11% | +13.4 | -4.3 | -2.1 | -7.0 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 58% | 17% | 19% | 6% | -1.3 | -0.6 | -3.3 | +5.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Go Kobayashi | 59% | 18% | 16% | 7% | +20.3 | -22.6 | +1.9 | +0.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 86% | 1% | 9% | 5% | -2.0 | -2.7 | +6.4 | -1.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 82% | 1% | 13% | 4% | -5.5 | -9.8 | -1.6 | +16.8 |
| South 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 82% | 1% | 7% | 10% | -34.2 | -6.9 | +51.2 | -10.1 |