Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/24 Game 1
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+64.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +39.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -1.8 | -2.4 | +0.3 | +3.9 |
| East 2 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 24% | 23% | 25% | 28% | +1.7 | -5.5 | -5.7 | +9.6 |
| East 3 | Draw | 23% | 19% | 21% | 38% | -5.3 | +4.3 | +2.1 | -1.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 21% | 22% | 22% | 35% | +1.1 | -2.3 | +4.6 | -3.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 1,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 22% | 20% | 25% | 32% | +13.7 | -0.6 | -6.8 | -6.2 |
| East 4 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 5,800 from Shibukawa Namba | 32% | 19% | 20% | 29% | -1.0 | -16.9 | +0.8 | +17.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 28% | 12% | 18% | 41% | +7.6 | -3.0 | -1.9 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 35% | 10% | 18% | 37% | -22.2 | -8.4 | -9.1 | +39.7 |
| South 2 | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 6% | 4% | 7% | 83% | -21.8 | -3.4 | +24.4 | +0.9 |
| South 3 | Shibukawa Namba ron 3,200 from Honda Tomohiro | 1% | 0% | 13% | 86% | -6.7 | +12.9 | -12.4 | +6.2 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -11.3 | +5.6 | +6.6 | -0.9 |