Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/24 Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+64.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +40.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -1.5 | -3.8 | +0.3 | +5.0 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 23% | 22% | 24% | 30% | +1.2 | -4.1 | -4.1 | +7.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 18% | 23% | 36% | -5.0 | +2.1 | +1.6 | +1.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 19% | 24% | 36% | -0.4 | -0.5 | +5.4 | -4.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 1,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 20% | 20% | 28% | 32% | +16.7 | -1.2 | -9.8 | -5.7 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,800 from Namba Shibukawa | 33% | 20% | 19% | 28% | -1.2 | -16.1 | +1.4 | +16.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 11% | 19% | 40% | +8.2 | -1.7 | -3.4 | -3.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 37% | 10% | 17% | 37% | -22.9 | -10.2 | -7.5 | +40.7 |
| South 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 7% | 3% | 7% | 84% | -22.4 | -3.7 | +23.1 | +3.0 |
| South 3 | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,200 from Tomohiro Honda | 1% | 0% | 10% | 89% | -7.7 | +14.9 | -11.0 | +3.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -10.8 | +4.8 | +6.7 | -0.7 |