Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/24 Game 2
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+69.2pt). The game was decided in South 2: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +24.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Namba Shibukawa | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -4.1 | -2.0 | +18.8 | -12.7 |
| East 2 | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Namba Shibukawa | 21% | 23% | 39% | 18% | +0.2 | -4.0 | +15.9 | -12.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 18% | 53% | 11% | -1.7 | +3.4 | -2.9 | +1.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 18% | 19% | 51% | 12% | -3.4 | +0.9 | +12.3 | -9.8 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 13% | 17% | 65% | 5% | +7.2 | -8.7 | +1.9 | -0.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,600 from Kei Nakabayashi | 15% | 12% | 68% | 5% | -10.4 | +9.5 | +2.5 | -1.6 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 15% | 73% | 5% | -3.1 | -18.2 | +24.9 | -3.7 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | -10.5 | +26.8 | -7.4 | -8.9 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 0% | 2% | 97% | 1% | +1.6 | +2.3 | +3.6 | -7.5 |