Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/27 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+68.3pt). The game was decided in East 3: Sayaka Okada ron 18,000 from Mari Takamiya, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +41.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 5,200 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -9.1 | -4.1 | +15.0 | -1.8 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,300 from Mari Takamiya | 17% | 22% | 37% | 24% | +0.5 | -0.2 | +5.8 | -6.1 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 18,000 from Mari Takamiya | 19% | 20% | 41% | 20% | -0.2 | -2.8 | +41.8 | -38.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 9% | 80% | 3% | -1.7 | -1.8 | +2.1 | +1.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 3,900 | 8% | 8% | 81% | 3% | -3.8 | -3.2 | +10.2 | -3.2 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 4% | 90% | 2% | -7.1 | -7.5 | -9.3 | +23.9 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 2,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 5% | 4% | 85% | 5% | -0.7 | -6.5 | +0.2 | +7.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 3% | 87% | 6% | -2.1 | +5.4 | +0.6 | -3.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 3% | 4% | 89% | 4% | -22.8 | +23.4 | +0.3 | -1.0 |
| South 2 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 7% | 89% | 3% | -4.4 | +18.3 | -6.3 | -7.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 0% | 18% | 80% | 2% | -0.3 | -8.8 | +7.7 | +1.3 |
| South 3 | Taro Suzuki ron 2,600 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 5% | 94% | 1% | +2.0 | +0.2 | -2.6 | +0.3 |
| South 4 | Seiichi Kondo ron 2,000 from Taro Suzuki | 0% | 4% | 95% | 1% | -5.8 | +2.6 | +2.7 | +0.6 |