Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/28 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+62.4pt). The game was decided in East 4: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +47.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 26% | 24% | 24% | -4.0 | -4.0 | -1.8 | +9.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 5,200 from Akina Mizuhara | 23% | 22% | 24% | 31% | +23.3 | -3.1 | -17.0 | -3.2 |
| East 3 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 8,000 | 40% | 19% | 13% | 28% | -6.5 | +23.9 | -12.1 | -5.3 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000 | 33% | 36% | 8% | 23% | -16.2 | -17.0 | -14.0 | +47.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 4,000 | 16% | 17% | 2% | 65% | -3.7 | +9.5 | -0.8 | -5.0 |
| South 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 5,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 13% | 23% | 3% | 61% | -4.0 | +17.9 | -1.5 | -12.4 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,200 from Saki Kurosawa | 11% | 43% | 2% | 44% | -16.9 | +2.6 | +11.1 | +3.2 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Akina Mizuhara | 3% | 47% | 4% | 47% | +2.3 | -9.2 | -13.9 | +20.8 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,900 | 0% | 19% | 0% | 81% | -1.4 | -5.1 | -1.3 | +7.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 91% | +3.8 | -3.2 | -1.8 | +1.2 |