Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/31 Game 2
Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+67.2pt). The game was decided in South 1, 5 honba: Matsugase Takaya tsumo 24,000, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +59.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Suzuki Yu 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Suzuki Yu Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Date Arisa ron 1,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 25% | 24% | 26% | 24% | -3.7 | +0.5 | +3.0 | +0.2 |
| East 2 | Suzuki Yu tsumo 7,800 | 23% | 24% | 28% | 25% | -7.2 | +21.7 | -8.5 | -5.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 18% | 41% | 21% | 20% | +6.6 | -3.2 | -0.9 | -2.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 21% | 39% | 21% | 20% | +2.4 | +4.9 | -0.8 | -6.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,000 from Suzuki Yu | 21% | 43% | 20% | 16% | 0.0 | -11.2 | -3.5 | +14.7 |
| East 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 18,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 24% | 34% | 17% | 25% | -44.7 | -8.2 | +0.1 | +52.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 16% | 10% | 72% | -3.7 | -9.4 | -6.8 | +19.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Draw | 1% | 6% | 4% | 89% | +3.2 | +0.2 | -3.1 | -0.2 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 1% | 5% | 3% | 92% | +27.8 | -4.8 | -2.1 | -20.9 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Suzuki Yu | 8% | 10% | 7% | 75% | +34.0 | -32.6 | +1.1 | -2.6 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 24,000 | 23% | 3% | 6% | 68% | +59.2 | -11.9 | -14.7 | -32.6 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Draw | 88% | 0% | 1% | 10% | -2.3 | -2.5 | +6.6 | -1.7 |
| South 2, 7 honba | Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 89% | 1% | 1% | 9% | -4.2 | -3.8 | +7.1 | +0.9 |
| South 3 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 4,000 | 89% | 0% | 2% | 9% | -0.3 | -1.8 | -5.1 | +7.3 |
| South 4 | Draw | 89% | 0% | 0% | 11% | -2.0 | +1.1 | -1.4 | +2.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Suzuki Yu tsumo 12,000 | 87% | 0% | 0% | 13% | +2.0 | +33.7 | -22.1 | -13.6 |