Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
10/31 Game 2
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+67.2pt). The game was decided in South 1, 5 honba: Takaya Matsugase tsumo 24,000, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +58.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date ron 1,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 24% | 25% | 24% | 27% | -4.3 | +1.0 | +4.4 | -1.1 |
| East 2 | Yu Suzuki tsumo 7,800 | 21% | 24% | 28% | 27% | -7.6 | +20.4 | -8.3 | -4.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 42% | 20% | 22% | +9.2 | -3.5 | -1.7 | -4.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 38% | 20% | 21% | +1.5 | +5.0 | +0.3 | -6.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Yu Suzuki | 22% | 43% | 20% | 16% | +0.4 | -12.1 | -3.8 | +15.6 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 18,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 24% | 32% | 18% | 26% | -45.0 | -6.5 | -0.1 | +51.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 17% | 10% | 71% | -5.5 | -9.0 | -7.7 | +22.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 5% | 3% | 91% | +4.0 | -1.6 | -0.8 | -1.7 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 1% | 5% | 2% | 92% | +29.8 | -3.9 | -5.5 | -20.5 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Yu Suzuki | 8% | 11% | 6% | 75% | +33.0 | -31.2 | +1.0 | -2.8 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 24,000 | 24% | 2% | 5% | 69% | +58.6 | -12.9 | -11.8 | -33.9 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Exhaustive draw | 90% | 0% | 1% | 9% | -1.5 | -3.0 | +4.7 | -0.2 |
| South 2, 7 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 90% | 1% | 1% | 9% | -4.1 | -4.0 | +7.4 | +0.7 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 4,000 | 89% | 0% | 2% | 10% | -0.6 | -1.2 | -4.5 | +6.3 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 89% | 0% | 0% | 11% | -2.2 | +0.9 | -1.6 | +2.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Yu Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 87% | 0% | 0% | 13% | +1.9 | +33.6 | -21.9 | -13.6 |