Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/3 Game 1
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+59.5pt). The game was decided in East 3: Ken Sonoda tsumo 18,000, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +53.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 6,400 | 25% | 26% | 23% | 26% | -9.1 | +14.7 | -2.3 | -3.3 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 5,200 | 19% | 36% | 23% | 23% | +15.6 | -6.6 | -6.1 | -2.8 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 18,000 | 30% | 30% | 18% | 21% | -18.2 | -17.4 | +53.1 | -17.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,600 from Aki Nikaido | 13% | 15% | 62% | 10% | -0.4 | -7.7 | +1.0 | +7.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 10% | 65% | 12% | -1.9 | -2.4 | +8.3 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 8% | 76% | 7% | -6.2 | +8.4 | +1.1 | -3.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 4% | 11% | 80% | 6% | +26.9 | -5.4 | +0.4 | -22.0 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 3% | 82% | 3% | -3.6 | -1.4 | +6.5 | -1.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 2% | 89% | 2% | -2.5 | -6.6 | -4.3 | +13.3 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,000 | 4% | 1% | 91% | 4% | +7.8 | +1.7 | +4.0 | -13.5 |