Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/3 Game 1
Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+59.5pt). The game was decided in East 3: Sonoda Ken tsumo 18,000, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +50.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 6,400 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | -12.0 | +16.8 | -3.0 | -1.8 |
| East 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 5,200 | 18% | 36% | 24% | 23% | +17.2 | -7.8 | -6.6 | -2.8 |
| East 3 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 18,000 | 28% | 30% | 19% | 22% | -16.8 | -16.8 | +50.1 | -16.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 2,600 from Nikaido Aki | 14% | 15% | 60% | 11% | -1.0 | -6.9 | -0.8 | +8.7 |
| East 4 | Draw | 13% | 11% | 61% | 14% | -1.1 | -1.6 | +9.3 | -6.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 10% | 9% | 73% | 8% | -7.0 | +6.9 | +1.5 | -1.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 5% | 10% | 77% | 8% | +26.9 | -5.0 | +0.4 | -22.3 |
| South 3 | Draw | 14% | 4% | 79% | 3% | -2.2 | -2.5 | +7.2 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 2% | 88% | 2% | -3.7 | -4.8 | -3.2 | +11.8 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,000 | 4% | 0% | 92% | 4% | +7.4 | +1.2 | +3.5 | -12.1 |