Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/4 Game 1
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+54.9pt). The game was decided in East 4, 3 honba: Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +38.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -3.7 | +21.3 | -19.5 | +1.9 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 40% | 13% | 25% | +22.8 | -13.0 | -5.1 | -4.7 |
| East 3 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 3,900 | 39% | 27% | 12% | 22% | -3.2 | -6.1 | +13.9 | -4.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 18,000 | 38% | 23% | 18% | 20% | -18.1 | -15.4 | +47.6 | -14.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 14% | 55% | 12% | -0.6 | +6.3 | -1.8 | -3.9 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 20% | 16% | 54% | 11% | -35.6 | -1.4 | -1.5 | +38.6 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 15% | 50% | 30% | -6.5 | -11.7 | -16.3 | +34.6 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 1,500 from Sayaka Kayamori | 3% | 7% | 26% | 64% | -6.7 | +0.5 | -1.9 | +8.1 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 2% | 5% | 21% | 72% | 0.0 | -6.7 | -2.5 | +9.3 |
| East 4, 7 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 3% | 15% | 81% | +16.6 | -6.0 | -3.0 | -7.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 4% | 15% | 78% | +7.5 | -3.9 | -3.2 | -0.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 3% | 14% | 79% | +2.6 | +1.9 | -1.7 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 4,800 from Sho Shiratori | 5% | 4% | 15% | 76% | +16.8 | -2.8 | -3.2 | -10.9 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 14% | 4% | 17% | 65% | -11.2 | +6.7 | +2.7 | +1.9 |
| South 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,000 from Sho Shiratori | 6% | 6% | 19% | 70% | -2.2 | -6.0 | +7.0 | +1.2 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 1% | 20% | 74% | +29.6 | -9.4 | -20.4 | +0.2 |
| South 4 | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 16% | 0% | 6% | 78% | -29.0 | -1.4 | +22.4 | +8.0 |