Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/4 Game 2
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+68.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +38.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 23% | 27% | +7.1 | -2.2 | -1.4 | -3.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 22% | 23% | 23% | -2.1 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 1,500 | 28% | 24% | 23% | 25% | -2.7 | +6.9 | -1.5 | -2.7 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 28% | 23% | 24% | -2.7 | +5.9 | -2.1 | -1.2 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 23% | 33% | 21% | 23% | +29.2 | -25.7 | -2.4 | -1.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 48% | 13% | 19% | 20% | +0.4 | -1.1 | -4.8 | +5.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 49% | 14% | 14% | 23% | -13.5 | -13.1 | -9.2 | +35.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 3,900 from Takaharu Ooi | 30% | 8% | 9% | 53% | -2.4 | -9.4 | +0.7 | +11.1 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 4% | 7% | 65% | -8.5 | -6.5 | +24.0 | -9.0 |
| South 1 | Seiichi Kondo ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 21% | 2% | 19% | 57% | -7.1 | -12.5 | +21.9 | -2.3 |
| South 2 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 4,000 | 13% | 1% | 36% | 50% | -5.0 | -6.3 | +18.3 | -7.0 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 7% | 0% | 59% | 35% | +5.2 | +0.4 | -7.2 | +1.5 |
| South 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 0% | 54% | 36% | -8.4 | -4.0 | -26.4 | +38.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 0% | 2% | 97% | -4.0 | +0.4 | +3.8 | -0.2 |