Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/4 Game 2
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+68.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +39.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | +3.4 | -2.1 | -0.3 | -1.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 28% | 24% | 25% | 24% | +1.7 | -0.4 | -1.4 | +0.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 1,500 | 28% | 24% | 23% | 25% | -4.5 | +7.8 | -1.4 | -1.9 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Draw | 25% | 29% | 23% | 24% | -2.0 | +6.8 | -3.7 | -1.1 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 24% | 33% | 19% | 23% | +29.0 | -28.4 | +1.5 | -2.0 |
| East 3 | Draw | 49% | 13% | 19% | 19% | -1.0 | -1.9 | -5.5 | +8.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 48% | 13% | 14% | 25% | -12.8 | -11.3 | -9.8 | +33.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Ooi Takaharu | 30% | 7% | 10% | 54% | -2.6 | -8.7 | +0.8 | +10.5 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 4% | 8% | 64% | -9.2 | -7.2 | +24.4 | -8.1 |
| South 1 | Kondo Seiichi ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 19% | 3% | 20% | 58% | -4.5 | -11.3 | +19.6 | -3.9 |
| South 2 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 4,000 | 14% | 1% | 34% | 50% | -5.8 | -7.1 | +17.3 | -4.4 |
| South 3 | Kurosawa Saki ron 2,000 from Kondo Seiichi | 7% | 0% | 55% | 39% | +5.0 | +0.3 | -3.3 | -2.0 |
| South 4 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 0% | 56% | 33% | -9.0 | -4.1 | -26.8 | +39.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 1% | 0% | 3% | 97% | -3.6 | +0.5 | +2.7 | +0.3 |