Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/7 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+132.7pt). The game was decided in South 4, 4 honba: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +42.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 24% | 23% | 26% | -19.3 | -6.8 | -6.8 | +32.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 17% | 17% | 53% | -1.5 | +6.3 | -3.0 | -1.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 2,600 from Namba Shibukawa | 12% | 21% | 17% | 51% | +11.3 | -13.2 | +0.4 | +1.5 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 13% | 17% | 55% | +1.1 | -3.7 | +4.4 | -1.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 9,600 from Namba Shibukawa | 16% | 12% | 19% | 53% | +2.7 | -24.4 | +28.1 | -6.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 4% | 38% | 41% | -0.9 | -0.8 | -1.1 | +2.9 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 3% | 36% | 45% | -10.6 | -5.1 | -15.3 | +31.1 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 1% | 14% | 78% | -0.5 | +2.4 | -0.1 | -1.7 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Yu Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 1% | 14% | 79% | +31.7 | -7.7 | -12.9 | -11.1 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 1% | 10% | 65% | -18.3 | -4.6 | +28.2 | -5.3 |
| South 2 | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 10% | 1% | 30% | 59% | -5.3 | -12.5 | +25.8 | -8.0 |
| South 3 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 0% | 59% | 38% | -6.5 | -3.8 | +24.9 | -14.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 90% | 10% | -0.3 | -0.8 | +3.9 | -2.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 1,500 from Namba Shibukawa | 0% | 0% | 93% | 7% | +0.1 | -3.1 | +5.8 | -2.9 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | +5.5 | -4.4 | -0.5 | -0.7 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 5,800 from Yu Suzuki | 0% | 0% | 97% | 3% | -9.7 | -0.1 | -1.2 | +11.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 7,700 from Taro Suzuki | 0% | 0% | 94% | 6% | -0.1 | -0.2 | -13.6 | +13.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 79% | 20% | +1.4 | -2.5 | -0.3 | +1.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 77% | 23% | -0.9 | -0.7 | -4.0 | +5.7 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 69% | 31% | -4.9 | -5.2 | -32.6 | +42.7 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 7,700 from Taro Suzuki | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0.0 | 0.0 | -10.8 | +10.8 |
| South 4, 6 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | +2.0 |
| South 4, 7 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -5.2 | -5.0 | -5.0 | +15.2 |
| South 4, 8 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,000 from Taro Suzuki | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +0.2 | +0.3 | -4.5 | +4.0 |
| South 4, 9 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -4.8 | -5.2 | -4.7 | +14.7 |
| South 4, 10 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -0.2 | -4.4 | +6.7 | -2.2 |