Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/7 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+76.7pt). The game was decided in East 3: Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +34.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Kanako Maruyama | 25% | 24% | 24% | 27% | -11.7 | +1.4 | +9.9 | +0.4 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,100 | 18% | 25% | 32% | 25% | -0.4 | -3.8 | +4.5 | -0.3 |
| East 3 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 22% | 35% | 26% | -8.1 | -9.0 | -17.0 | +34.1 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Kanako Maruyama | 12% | 13% | 19% | 55% | -29.3 | +0.2 | +33.9 | -4.8 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 11% | 43% | 44% | -7.4 | +8.4 | -1.4 | +0.5 |
| South 2 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 14% | 41% | 45% | -3.4 | -15.9 | -12.9 | +32.2 |
| South 3 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 12% | 87% | -1.9 | -2.1 | -9.2 | +13.2 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +0.4 | +2.4 | -4.5 | +1.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,600 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.0 | -5.7 | +8.5 | -1.8 |